Re: Vietnamese structural unemployment

[Sonnet Nguyen <Sonnet.Nguyen@fuw.edu.pl>]

Hi everybody, (to Mr Ian Bui et al.) 

First, thanks for your discussions & opinions to this topic. 
Because your concepts are similar to my, so I would like to add few words 
to what you have written. 

On Sat, 26 Jul 1997, zen machine wrote:

> > [The percent of famers also say us about the degree of the 
> > civilization of the country.  I meaned here the West Civilization.  
> > For example, England about 1.5%, US about 3%, EU less than 10%]
> 
> I'm not sure if I understand the connection between being a
> "civilized" society and having a low percentage of farmers. 
> Please elaborate.

Could you give me an example of "civilized society" with large percentage
of farmers? 
I do not want to say that the farmers are worse (or an group of second
category) than other groups.   However the essential values of civilised
society are different than  "values" of farmers.  
Farmers are in the worse position in Industrialized Civilization and
their position becomes worse and worse (i.e. the distance between farmers
and other groups enlarges!), because they are poorly educated and in
agriculture (usually) is no "hard rivalization" as in other areas.   
If the rivalization is weak, then it is comprehensible that they do not
understand the rule of educations.

> As the country becomes more "industrialized", naturally more
> and more of the work that traditionally have been done by hand will
> be done by machinery. But that doesn't mean the people won't
> have anything else to do. It only means that they'll have to
> learn new skills instead (and you can bet that they will learn
> them rather than die of starvation). The "reduction" in the number 
> of actual farmers will happen gradually and follow a course dictated 
> largely by natural forces (i.e. the market) as well as government 
> interventions (i.e. training programs, subsidies, loans, etc.)

Free market does not solve very problems!  The two classical problems 
are impossible to solve by free market are:  Educational Problem and
Housing Problem.   I did write anything about "natural force" (by your
terminoloy), it is not because that I do not understand his rule but for 
the simple reason: it is not under of our control. So let it acts
accordingly with the economical laws!!!  I really wanted to say only about 
the goverment interventions ( it is under control! )     
If the goverment has a good program for agriculture and his "reduction",
then VN has a chance to become "TIGER".
Reduction in VN-se agriculture is hard but it is neccesary.  Free market
can not solve this "astronomical" problem, and VN-se goverment has to
prepare strategical program for doing this.  Of course, the most important
elements in this program must be: education, loans, subsides.
  
> Education will, once again, play a key role in the transition
> from an agricultural society to an industrialized one (note I
> did not use the term "civilized"). Children from rural areas will
> *especially* need to have a good education in order to effectively
> compete in the new era. Some of them will continue to be farmers,
> of course. However, farming in the future will be quite different 
> from how it's done today. Therefore future farmers will also need 
> more than just a plot of land and a willingess to work like a dog 
> (e.g. tra^u bo\).

I can add only 1 commen to your words:
Industrialized agriculture requires less and less farmers.  
It is not hard to show that the developments of other areas of economy
gives us more benefits than agriculture can give. Moreover, if we have
better technology, then 5% of populations can give society quite enough
agricultural products.   So Reduction in VN-se agriculture is absolutely
necessary!  May be not nowaday, but it could begin after few years
(in 2000).  If in each year the number of VN-se farmers is less about
500.000, so it is "aceptable program".  And it is very easy test?!?

> There are plenty of lessons around for VN to learn from. I think
> it's too early to panic :) but of course it's always better to
> look ahead and anticipate potential problems than to "wait 'til
> the tide hits your feet before you jump" :))

Hope that you understand me.  I do not want to panic anyone, however
I want to signal the big potential problem (in the very near future) which
requires a solution & goverment program for interventions.
I consider usually only academical problems, so if I want to say few words
about VN-se problems, then these problems must be "in Future".

> Thank you, ba'c Sonnet, for the opportunity to share my view with
> you on this interesting topic.

Best regards,
SN
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Sonnet Nguyen
P. Acad. Scie.
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