SCMP/HK: Beijing orders daily updates on Taiwan

[bich dao <daotb@yahoo.com>]

                    Wednesday, August 25, 1999
                                
             Beijing orders daily
              updates on Taiwan

             WILLY WO-LAP LAM 

             President Jiang Zemin and other members
             of the Politburo Standing Committee are to
             receive daily reports about developments
             in cross-strait relations and Taiwan
             politics, including the presidential election
             campaign. 

             The frequency of the reports, to be
             compiled by the ministerial-level Taiwan
             Affairs Office, would be increased in
             times of crisis. 

             In addition, PLA authorities would
             regularly update the Politburo on
             preparations for possible military action
             against the "breakaway province". 

             A source close to Beijing's Taiwan policy
             establishment said the upgraded
             monitoring of Taiwan showed how
             anxious the Jiang leadership was to smash
             the "pro-independence conspiracy" of the
             administration of President Lee Teng-hui. 

             However, the source said more senior
             cadres were gravitating towards waiting
             until the presidential elections in Taiwan
             next March before deciding on whether to
             take military action such as invading a
             Taipei-held outlying island. 

             "The moderate viewpoint among the
             leadership is if the new president will
             renounce Mr Lee's 'two states theory',
             Beijing can wind down the sabre-rattling,"
             the source said. 

             However, he added, there was
             disagreement among senior cadres as to
             whether the new president should be
             required to publicly disown Mr Lee's
             theory, or whether it would suffice if he
             were simply to refrain from mentioning it. 

             A diplomatic analyst said much depended
             on the outcome of the semi-summit
             between Mr Jiang and American
             counterpart Bill Clinton in New Zealand
             in mid-September. 

             He said Beijing hoped Mr Clinton would
             publicly denounce the "two-states theory"
             in New Zealand. 

             Moreover, Mr Jiang was likely to press
             the US President to make at least some
             private assurance about not selling to
             Taiwan weapons related to the Theatre
             Missile Defence system. 

             The analyst said Beijing might postpone
             military or threatening action against
             Taiwan if it got ironclad guarantees from
             Washington that the latter would rein in
             Taipei's pro-independence activities. 

             Meanwhile, Beijing continues to play the
             "Russian card" against Washington by
             spotlighting possibilities of closer military
             co-operation with Moscow. 

             Mr Jiang is due to meet Russian President
             Boris Yeltsin during a Central Asian
             summit today and Premier Zhu Rongji
             yesterday held talks with the Russian
             Vice-Premier, Ilya Klebanov, one of
             whose portfolios is defence. 

             Western diplomats said Beijing and
             Moscow were negotiating China's
             purchase of Russian hardware including
             jet fighters and submarines. 

                                                       

                                                            
                                                   
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