Re: [Reuters] Delayed trade pact sparks Hanoi integration debate

["DiemQuynh Nguyen" <diemquynhng@hotmail.com>]

HI all:
Bu*~a tru*o*'c ddo.c tin na`y nhu*ng tui kho^ng da'm forward vi` so*. pha.m 
lua^.t vnsa; may qua' nay anh L^n cu*.u CA forward; kho^ng bie^'t ta co' 
the^? loa.n ba`n chu't ddu*o*.c cha(ng ?
DX
***********
From: Alexander H L Vu <vuh000@mail.Uni-Mainz.DE>

>Delayed trade pact sparks Hanoi integration debate
>By Dean Yates
>
>HANOI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Vietnam has hesitated signing a landmark trade 
>deal
>with the United States because the pact's conditions have triggered an 
>intense
>internal debate about the merits of joining the world economy.
>
>Ruling Communist Party and other sources said a series of discussions had 
>been
>held since Hanoi reached agreement in principle on the pact with former foe
>Washington last July.
>
>While the outcome and duration of the debate was uncertain, it could have 
>the
>most far-reaching consequences for Vietnam since the adoption of economic
>reforms in 1986, analysts said.
>
>Ratification of the trade agreement would open Vietnam's economy and 
>liberalise
>
>its investment rules, requirements that have forced the country's communist
>elite to ask themselves if they are ready to embrace economic integration.
>
>``This debate is not about the trade pact. It is about whether Vietnam's
>leaders are prepared to take the big steps into the world economy or not,''
>said one financial source.
>
>``It extends into every facet of the system and to the cultural identity of 
>the
>country and is causing a great deal of angst in the eyes, minds and hearts 
>of
>the leaders. Ultimately the trade pact will be the signal of success or 
>failure
>(of that debate).''
>
>At stake was Vietnam's place in the world economy, work for 1.3 million new 
>job
>
>seekers each year and investor interest in a nation where many foreign
>businessmen have packed up because of slow economic reforms, red tape and
>graft, analysts said.
>
>Vietnam's reasonable macroeconomic data -- expected growth of four percent 
>this
>
>year -- did not hide the fact that the country should be growing at twice 
>that
>rate, they added.
>
>``The debate in Vietnam is probably as crucial as the pre-Doi Moi debate,''
>said Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam expert at the Asia-Pacific Center for 
>Security
>Studies in Hawaii, referring to discussions in 1985 that led to the 1986 
>Doi
>Moi reforms that steered the country away from near bankruptcy.
>
>Thayer said elite opposition to embracing the world economy began to appear
>during the recent Asian economic crisis, when countries such as Vietnam and
>China escaped the full brunt because of closed financial systems and fixed
>currencies.
>
>But now that Asian growth forecasts had shot up, Thayer said proponents of
>economic integration were arguing the country would experience the danger 
>it
>had sought all decade to avoid -- falling further behind its richer 
>neighbours.
>
>Vietnam's 79 million people have annual per capita incomes just above $300,
>among the world's lowest.
>
>Analysts also say that conservative elements oppose quicker integration 
>because
>it would gradually erode the party's political and economic control over 
>the
>country.
>
>U.S. TRADE PACT JUST BELOW THE SURFACE
>
>The debate over economic integration is expected to be on the agenda of a 
>10-
>day plenum of the 170-member party central committee, which should get 
>under
>way on November 2.
>
>Whether the trade pact with the United States will be on the table is 
>unclear,
>and U.S. officials say they have little idea when the government might be 
>ready
>to sign.
>
>One financial source has said the Vietnamese might seek to renegotiate 
>certain,
>unidentified parts of the pact.
>
>The problem for Vietnam is that the current provisional document -- which
>itself took more than three years to hammer out -- might be overtaken by 
>events.
>
>Unless it is signed soon, the agreement might miss the chance of U.S.
>Congressional approval next year because of the American presidential 
>election,
>which will dominate the country's political calendar.
>
>That would delay Congressional approval until 2001, by which time tougher
>trading rules might begin to emerge from a new round of global trade talks 
>that
>commence at a World Trade Organisation ministerial meeting in Seattle on
>November 30.
>
>That might prompt Washington itself to back off on signing the trade 
>agreement
>if it was not broadly in line with those new rules, sources close to the 
>pact
>have said.
>
>Nevertheless, diplomats and donors welcomed the tussle over economic
>integration.
>
>``The trade pact...is precipitating something that needs to happen in this
>country, which is the confrontation of very important questions,'' the head 
>of
>
>one donor organisation said.
>

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