Taiwan/CNA: PENTAGON WARNS OF PLA MISSILE BUILDUP

[Dao Van <daotb@yahoo.com>]

10-25-99 PENTAGON WARNS OF PLA MISSILE BUILDUP

Washington, Oct.  25 (CNA) Mainland China is developing "one of the most
daunting conventional theater missile challenges in the world...  which
could have significant implications for regional stability", according
to a Pentagon report completed in September.  The report, titled "The
PLA's Strategic War Fighting in the 21st Century: Space and Theater
Missile Development," deals mainly with the implications of mainland
China's theater missile development as a major focus of the PLA's
modernization.  The 40-page report contains a lot of discussion on the
threat to Taiwan posed by the mainland's missile buildup and possible
countermeasures. 
"In  the  most  likely  scenario for their use,"
the report says,
"the  PLA's  (People's  Liberation  Army's) growing
arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles, and a preemptive
doctrine could give Beijing a decisive edge in any future conflict with
Taiwan." The danger of this is that the Beijing leadership, having
acquired an overwhelming offensive advantage, might be more inclined to
use force even if Taiwan does not declare de jure independence.  This in
turn could lead Taiwan to seek stronger deterrents, including renewed
efforts to develop a nuclear device, says the report.  The report also
points out that, as Taiwan's national security community debates the
need for a stronger deterrent, there may be increased domestic pressure
for tactically offensive counter force operations, to include preemptive
strikes.  In the section which details operational concepts associated
with a possible PLA theater missile campaign, the report says that
mainland China would seek to quickly strip Taiwan of its war fighting
capability.  The PLA would try to achieve air superiority, sea
superiority and information dominance by large-scale, preemptive missile
strikes carried out in conjunction with air strikes and special
operations.  The report quoted PLA writings as saying that half of its
theater missile inventory would be used in the initial strike phase.  It
is believed that the PLA currently has deployed 150 to 200 short-range
ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan and Western sources believe the
number would increase to 650 over the next several years.  Conscious of
likely US intervention, the PLA has indicated a willingness to use
missiles against US targets, including key bases in Japan and aircraft
carriers operating in the Western Pacific, the report says.  For Taiwan
to counter a large-scale theater missile threat, the report says, the
only effective way is "through jointness and innovative war fighting
concepts" associated with the Revolution in Military Affairs.  The
report says that ballistic missiles are emerging as the backbone of
conventional PLA theater operations and mainland China is concentrating
on three particular systems, namely the short-range DF-15 (M-9), DF-11
(M-11) and the medium-range DF-21.  Currently the PLA is working on
terminal guidance and missile defense countermeasures to improve the
accuracy and lethality of these systems.  Also, the PLA's
first-generation land attack cruise missiles could be operational early
in the next century.  These missiles, probably air-launched, will be
more accurate, more difficult to defend and less costly to make than
ballistic missiles. 
(By Jay Chen)
ENDITEM/SDB
^Z

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