augur combines the magic of prediction markets with the power of a decentralized network to create a stunningly accurate forecasting tool and the chance for real money trading profits what is augur subscribe for updates about augur we won t share your email address or send you any spam we promise get rewarded for your knowledge and insight augur is a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting future real world events . predict the outcome of real world events you make your predictions by trading virtual shares in the outcome of events happening in the real world . if you think hillary clinton will be elected president the yankees will win the world series or leonardo dicaprio will win another oscar then you ll buy shares in those outcomes . if you buy shares in the correct outcomes you ll win real money profits . earn real money trading profits the prices of the shares you trade in any event adds up to one dollar so if you buy a share at even odds it will cost you 50 cents . if you end up being right you ll get back one dollar for every share you bought . if you re wrong then you ve lost the money used to buy your shares . as with any market the price of shares fluctuates over time . as more people buy shares in an outcome the price of that outcome will rise while the price of other outcomes will fall . this gives you further opportunities for profit by buying low and selling high before the final result of the market is known . stunningly accurate forecasts on any topic augur s prediction markets provide powerful predictive data you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world . for example a share priced at 64 cents has a 64 % probability of happening . the accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the the wisdom of the crowd . this states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group . markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom which is made up of all the information analysis and opinion held by members of the group . with these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real world events based on their personal knowledge and opinion the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group . prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts surveys or traditional opinion polling . they provide real time predictive data and are traded using real money which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen rather than what they hope will happen . traders are putting their money where their mouths are . decentralization augur s secret weapon existing on a decentralized network gives augur a unique edge over other prediction markets . no central servers augur is a decentralized platform built on the ethereum blockchain which means no central servers that can be switched off . create your own markets using augur anyone anywhere in the world can quickly and easily create a prediction market asking a question about anything . as a market creator you ll provide some initial funding for the market and in return receive half of all trading fees collected during the lifetime of that market . low fees augur s fees are set by users and are vastly lower compared to traditional trading and betting platforms . crowdsourced reporting in centralized markets one person determines the final market outcomes which means there can be mistakes or outright manipulation . with augur we ll have thousands reporting on market outcomes using a one of a kind consensus based system and a unique token called reputation . as a reporter you ll report on events every two months and in return receive half of all fees in the system multiplied by the percent of rep you own . the full scoop on rep safe automated payments all funds are stored in smart contracts eliminating counterparty risk and allowing fast automated payments to winning traders . depositing and withdrawing funds are also completely automated using the blockchain . with no human intervention required there s no human error . try augur now ... for free after months of development we are pleased to release the beta version of augur . this early version showcases the core features of our prediction market platform . we re still actively developing the software and working on design but we d love to hear your honest and unfiltered feedback about our work so far . join augur beta free no cost and no deposit required it s all just play money during beta testing . the augur team jack peterson phdco founder & lead front end developer joey krugco founder & lead back end developer stephen sprinklesenior front end developer tomas priecinskyfront end developer john danzfront end developer petr baudisback end developer ryan garnerback end developer peronet despeignesspecialops tony sakichdirector of marketing ivan petricmarketeer team augur.net augur slack signup augur slack login frequently asked questions blog terms & conditions privacy policy join augur beta dev app unstable copyright 2015 2016 forecast foundation ou jack peterson phdco founder & lead front end developer jack is a physicist entrepreneur and software developer . he became fascinated by distributed networks while finishing his ph.d. at ucsf . he has delved into scientific computing 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 blockchain programming 1 2 3 4 5 computer vision neural networks peer to peer networking gis and web development . he was a national defense science and engineering graduate fellow and has published several peer reviewed articles on complex networks and information theory including modeling and simulation of protein protein interaction networks and social networks automated kinetic model extraction for single molecule experiments and the statistical mechanics of heavy tailed distributions . he is currently building augur s javascript api and front end . in his free time jack enjoys swimming picking blackberries and travel writing . joey krugco founder & lead back end developer joey took a leave of absence from pomona college to focus full time on augur . he conducted the first bitcoin transaction via sound as well as the first bitcoin transaction via ios android bluetooth le . joey is one of the 2016 thiel fellows . before creating augur he and jack completed sidecoin which allows new cryptocurrency distributions based on snapshots of bitcoin account balances . he works on augur s back end codebase its ethereum smart contracts . he is currently making augur s consensus implementation faster and more accurate . joey worked on bitcoin merchant solutions and enjoys hardware tinkering and game development . he was his high school valedictorian and a senior officer of his college investment club . stephen sprinklesenior front end developer stephen brings a level of familiarity and comfort to the start up and scaling phases of product design and development having either founded or co founded a series of ventures previously . his former projects include cryptoping and address watching service certle which provides technical certification tracking and giving.io a mobile donations platform for faith institutions . being a relatively early adopter of bitcoin has helped influence his growing passion for decentralized applications and the cryptocurrencies that support them . he is looking forward to contributing to the front end initiative of the augur and its truly novel form of research and insight that s provided in a resilient manner . tomas priecinskyfront end developer tomas joined intrade back in 2011 where he gained experience on how to build various uis simplified for basic users advanced for real time traders and compact for mobile devices . then he went to work for barclays in 2013 before coming back to the development team that previously created intrade . tomas was a core developer of the tradesports fantasy sports platform . he yet again worked on real time uis and building multi platform hybrid mobile applications while gaining exposure to bitcoin . he s skilled at js css java sql and various js frameworks . he spent a few years at the university of economics prague vysok kola ekonomick v praze before moving on early to a career in programming . in addition to programming he enjoys sports culture and bacon . lots of bacon . john danzfront end developer john has experience working in small software companies with big clients and brings an agile wear many hats ability to the augur team . his work has allowed him to build pages and applications with clients such as eli lilly scholastic and pearson education . he has experience with all manner of browser quirks a proficiency in javascript a passion to learn all there is to know about javascript applications and the ever growing ecosystem that surrounds javascript . although relatively new to developing decentralized software powered by cryptocurrency john is excited to jump headfirst into this new and ground breaking field . ryan garnerback end developer ryan is a programmer skilled in c and basic . before joining augur he designed an improved quadratic fee structure created a routine for automatically distributing the labor of judges to achieve a target accuracy and designed a way to calculate re adjudication bonds based on opportunity cost . in ryan s spare time he enjoys researching and discussing futurology decentralization concepts derived from quantum nature and use cases of daos . additionally ryan has an interest in world war ii strategy and analyzing the cost benefit relationship of equipment this interest lead to ryan creating the largest wwii realism mod for wesnoth . ryan is on r augur using the handle imkharn . petr baudisback end developer petr baudis manages a special r & d project within augur to build a reporter helper system that uses artificial intelligence natural language processing to recommend answers to questions about predicted outcomes on reporters ballots . petr is an authority on the subject as the team leader of yodaqa a widely recognized global initiative to build a lighterweight open source q & a alternative to ibm watson . he s fluent in computer go continuous black box optimization combinatorial game theory monte carlo simulations information extraction from unstructured text c java python perl linux and unix . he has a masters in theoretical computer science at charles university and is currently a phd candidate at czech tech university . he worked for novartis novell and sirius labs and participated in the u.s. national institute of standards and technology annual text retrieval conference on liveqa . tony sakichdirector of marketing tony managed the first bitcoin related national tv ad campaign the most successful social media campaign in the cryptocurrency space to date as the marketing manager for bitpay . that capped 10 years of work on digital campaigns with microsoft paypal espn warner bros. and other tech and entertainment groups . he is obsessed with decentralization and bayesian probability making him a perfect fit for augur . his podcast decentralize.fm also on itunes and sticher features bleeding edge projects and celebrities . he specializes in promoting decentralized software products and platforms . tony s philosophy on marketing focuses on transparency customer interaction and making the project as easy to understand as possible . peronet despeignesspecialops perry is involved in special operations for augur including strategic initiatives involving the financial sector artificial intelligence business outreach outside the us and project documentation . he worked as an economics correspondent for the financial times fortune and investors business daily after majoring in economics at harvard . before the 2007 crash he uncovered heavy insider selling by homebuilder executives used futures markets