permalink reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us october 14 2016 clinton s florida lead continues to grow ppp s newest florida poll finds hillary clinton s lead in the state continuing to tick up . she s at 46 % to 42 % for donald trump with gary johnson at 5 % and jill stein at 1 % . when ppp last polled the state two weeks ago clinton s advantage was 45 43 . in a head to head clinton s lead over trump grows to 5 points at 49 44 . trump was already unpopular in florida but after the revelations of the last week his favorability numbers have cratered in the state . on our last poll he had a net 11 rating 42 53 and that s declined by another 11 points to where it s now 22 37 59 . clinton on the other hand has seen a slight improvement from 43 53 up to 44 51 . it seems like trump s last ditch effort to revive his campaign might be trying to use bill clinton s past accused actions against his wife but we find that voters in florida are likely to firmly reject that line of attack . only 35 % of voters think it s fair to hold hillary responsible for the behavior of her husband to 57 % who say that s unfair . that line of argument might play well with trump s hardcore base but it s not likely to help him win over many new converts . one thing that s helping clinton s prospects in florida is that voters say 52 43 they d rather have another four years of barack obama as president than the sharp change of direction that a trump presidency would represent . undecided voters by a 29 point margin would rather have obama than trump . those folks don t like hillary clinton or else they d already be voting for her but it seems they might go clinton or they might go third party or they might stay home . but they re not likely to move to trump who literally not a single undecided voter in our poll said they had a positive opinion of . there s been some surprise that the bottom hasn t fallen out on trump even more than it already has this week . here are some findings that explain why trump s not seeing a greater decline in support 84 % of trump voters think that hillary clinton should be in prison to only 6 % who disagree with that notion . if you hate the opposing candidate so much you think she should be in jail you re probably not jumping ship . alex jones floated the notion this week that hillary clinton is actually a demon and 40 % of trump voters say that they really do think clinton is a demon to only 42 % who dismiss that idea . this measurement pretty clearly shows that 40 % of trump s base is the infowars crowd so they re not going to be too dissuaded by allegations of sexual misconduct . we ve talked all year about how there s a cult like aspect to trump s following and this finding might show it most of all despite everything that s come out in the last week 75 % of trump voters say they think that he respects women to only 9 % who don t believe he does . again if you re willing to dismiss all the facts in front of you to the contrary you re probably going to stay on board through election day . one thing that gives motivation to 38 % of trump voters in florida is that they think the country is inherently better off with a man as president regardless of this year s candidates . it seems safe to say the folks who subscribe to that school of thought are unbothered by the last week of trump revelations . clinton s a stronger favorite now both nationally and in florida than she s ever been . but the above mentioned reasons are why she s not up by double digits and seems unlikely to get to that point regardless of how many more bad news cycles trump has between now and election day . other notes from florida continue reading clinton s florida lead continues to grow posted by tom jensen at 05 00 pm in barack obama baseball bill nelson blog donald trump florida gary johnson hillary clinton marco rubio polls president 2016 rick scott sports u.s. senate 2016 permalink comments 0 reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us october 12 2016 nevada republicans abandon heck for abandoning trump a new public policy polling survey of likely voters in nevada finds catherine cortez masto with her biggest lead in the race to date . she s at 43 % to 39 % for joe heck . heck s disavowal of donald trump is hurting him in the race . 34 % of voters say that makes them less likely to vote for heck compared to only 19 % who say it makes them more likely to support him . among trump voters 48 % say heck s statement makes them less likely to vote for him . you can see the negative impact of heck s new stance on trump in his numbers among republicans . in our tracking last week heck was already under performing within his own party winning only 76 13 . this week he s fallen even further to having just a 70 15 advantage among voters of his own party . the impact on heck s favorability rating with gop voters is even more pronounced dropping from 71 19 to 63 25 . cortez masto now has a net favorability rating 7 points better than heck s with the overall electorate . hillary clinton leads donald trump by an identical 4 point margin to cortez masto s lead at 47 43 . this is the first time we ve found clinton and cortez masto polling on par with each other in our nevada tracking . public policy polling surveyed 986 likely voters on behalf of catherine cortez masto for senate on october 10th and 11th . the margin of error is 3.1 % . 80 % of participants selected through a list based sample responded via the phone while 20 % of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt in internet panel . full results here posted by tom jensen at 04 00 pm in blog donald trump gary johnson hillary clinton nevada polls president 2016 u.s. senate 2016 permalink comments 0 reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us florida question suggestions we ll launch a new florida poll tonight ... obviously will touch on the races for president and senate but any specific questions or topics you d be interested in fire away posted by tom jensen at 09 56 am in blog permalink comments 12 reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us october 06 2016 tight race for president in ohio ppp s new ohio poll finds that the race in the state continues to be very tight . hillary clinton s at 44 % to 43 % for donald trump 5 % for gary johnson and 2 % for jill stein . if voters had to choose just between clinton and trump clinton s advantage remains one point at 48 47 . ohio s emblematic of what we see in much of the country . voters don t like hillary clinton she has a 42 54 favorability rating . but they like donald trump even less with his favorability coming in at 38 56 . to put trump s unpopularity in the state in perspective we asked ohioans whether they have a more favorable opinion of trump or the university of michigan and that school up north beat out trump 48 33 . one thing that could help clinton win ohio in the end is that voters in the state say they d rather have four more years of barack obama as president than trump 51 45 . if clinton can effectively convince voters she would be the continuation of the country s current direction that they prefer to the sharp pivot a trump presidency would represent it could put her over the top here . there s been a lot of attention paid in the last week to trump s tax returns and it s clear the attention is hurting him in ohio . only 35 % of voters in the state think trump pays his fair share in federal income taxes to 47 % who think he doesn t. among those who don t think trump pays his fair share he s trailing clinton 77 9 . a plurality of voters in ohio 45 % think they personally pay more in taxes than trump does to only 34 % of voters who think trump pays more . there continues to be a strong consensus among voters that trump should release his returns 61 % say he ought to do that to only 25 % who don t think it s necessary . of course one reason for his reluctance may be that releasing his returns could confirm a suspicion that voters have about trump s finances only 35 % believe that he s as rich as he says he is . other findings from ohio there s been a lot of discussion this week about whether donald trump is a good role model for children and voters in ohio pretty emphatically say that he is not . just 23 % consider him to be a good role model with 64 % saying he isn t. it s not surprising that only 3 % of clinton voters think trump s a good role model with 96 % saying that he isn t. but what s more striking is that even among trump s own voters just 46 % will say that he s a good role model to 31 % who say he isn t and 23 % who aren t sure . continue reading tight race for president in ohio posted by tom jensen at 07 41 pm in barack obama baseball blog donald trump gary johnson hillary clinton john kasich ohio polls president 2016 rob portman sports ted strickland u.s. senate 2016 permalink comments 0 reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us october 04 2016 ohio question suggestions ohio won our vote on where to poll this week . obviously we ll ask about the races for president and senate . what other questions or topics should we cover thanks as always for the good suggestions posted by tom jensen at 01 16 pm in blog permalink comments 13 reblog 0 digg this save to del.icio.us september 29 2016 clinton leads by 4 nationally ; trump hurt himself in debate ppp s new national poll finds hillary clinton leading by 4 points both in the full field of candidates and in a head to head match up with donald trump . in the full field she gets 44 % to 40 % for trump 6 % for gary johnson 2 % for evan mcmullin and 1 % for jill stein . she leads trump 49 45 if voters had to choose just between the two of them . monday night s debate was a big success for clinton . 54 % of voters think she won it to only 31 % who think trump won . beyond that simple fact it opened up several issues that may persist for the rest of the campaign the discussion about trump s personal taxes in the debate has voters thinking several things that could prove very problematic for his ability to make a