I would like to challenge the following statement.
“The availability of shared transportation may displace the need for public transportation”
This statement implies that when driverless cars become commonplace in large cities, public transportation will become obsolete. I disagree with this statement. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. With these cars driving around, many advantages to owning a personal vehicle are entirely undermined. Since these cars would use the already expansive network of existing roads and infrastructure, an enormous fleet of public transportation driverless cars could essentially function as an extra-developed metro or bus system with customizable and optimizable routes.
For me personally, the primary advantage to owning a vehicle is the freedom of transportation whenever I want. The personal ride is simple a perk. There are numerous downsides to owning a vehicle, both financially and logistically, including finding parking and simply the stress of having to drive. If driverless vehicles were introduced as a large-scale shared transportation system, many of the disadvantages would vanish. I would no longer need to find a parking spot nor would I need to concentrate on safely arriving at my destination. Even setting aside the financial fiasco that is buying a personal car, I would surely be more inclined to take this new and improved public transportation system, even if it meant sharing a car with strangers.
One large disadvantage to public transportation is the inefficiency that exists in having to travel along a specified route, regardless of your commuting plans. A strong AI would be able to efficiently map routes, essentially counteracting the common choose-a-route system generally used in public transportation. New uberpool-esque custom routes could instead be structured around the schedule and specific needs of individuals, using mass data to calculate efficient routings for multiple people at once. This could be a lot more efficient than any current public transportation system, given the technology and infrastructure involved.
In addition, the public transportation systems would have to expand to cover non-metropolitan areas. The reduction in the number of cars owned could lead to an increased demand for inter-city transportation. Although a smaller percentage of the population would own a car the desire to travel would not diminish, and as a result, the public transportation system would expand. In addition, the extended range of a viable transportation system could lead to decentralization of large cities, thus placing more importance on efficient transportation.
Instead of reducing the need for public transportation, I believe driverless cars will redefine the market. It will no longer be necessary to own a personal vehicle and the fleet of cars at the ready at any given time will vastly improve the efficiency and convenience of the current system. I agree that, once operating at full potential, this new system may displace some specifics of our current public transportation systems, such as busses and subways. However, I strong believe that instead of “displacing the need for public transportation,” driverless cars or “shared transportation” will become synonymous with public transportation.
