The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence is an investigation that began in the fall of 2014 as a way of monitoring the field of artificial intelligence and how it is influencing people, communities, and society as a whole. Every 5 years a panel of experts in the field produces a comprehensive state of the field at that time. The first and most current survey was released in 2015, and focuses on 8 domains: transportation, household robotics, healthcare, education, low-resource communities, public safety and security, employment, and entertainment. 
To dive into this article, it is important to understand the scope that was chosen by the panel. The survey first narrows its focus from the entire world population to the dense urban environments and large cities. In doing this, the survey focuses on North American cities, and extrapolates their findings to the global environment. Another important note about the scope of the survey is that it excludes military uses of artificial intelligence. 
The survey has high hopes for artificial intelligence in personal transportation. Making claims like As cars become better drivers than people, city-dwellers will own fewer cars, live further from work and spend time differently . While the survey does not expect everyone to own a self driving car by 2030, it seems to focus on self driving capabilities making their way into personal vehicles. I believe that cost and technological obstacles will push self driving capabilities away from personal transportation and instead be focused on industrial and military use. 
The first thing to consider when looking forward to self driving cars in personal transportation is the cost. People are unlikely to make the investment into self driving technologies in their personal vehicles until they are reliable enough to autonomously drive without needing to be ready to drive manually. Currently Tesla vehicles have some lane changing capabilities, yet drivers are expected to be doing most of the attentive driving. In 2016 there was the first recorded death of a person being driven by a semi-autonomous vehicle. This technology is prohibitively expensive for the vast majority of the population, and will not be taken up while it does not allow people to drastically change the way they drive. Until the technology has advanced enough to be cheap enough for nearly everyone to have, we will not see tangible improvements in our roads. 
The best example of this is former assisted driving technologies that we still dont see as commonplace. For example, intelligent parking assist systems have been commercially since 2003. Still 14 years later we do not see it widely available in cars. It would be an even greater stretch to expect it to change the overall landscape of parking. So it can be expected that even given the 13 years (the survey is projecting to 2030) that the general population will not commonly own self driving or semi-self driving cars and I contest the idea that the way we travel will be drastically changed until the technology is advanced and reduces in cost. 
