The clear intent of One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, to highlight — in large majority — the positive aspects of AI in our society, while founded in fact, does make me increasingly speculative. While I am entirely in agreement that there will not be a robot revolt against humanity any time soon, I would like to address the, perhaps overly, optimistic nature of this paper. I also believe that a follow-up study detailing artificial intelligence in defense and war-fare should be released, maybe on its own, so I do understand the committee’s decision to exclude it from this paper.

A committee of experts informing their audience of the current state of affairs in their field is absolutely necessary, and pairing that information with where they believe their field will be in fifteen years makes sense. As a reader, the latter should be kept in mind, but definitely not taken with the same level of seriousness as the former, simply because even as experts it is difficult to pinpoint how trends will change, and to account for unforeseeable circumstances. Artificial intelligence has had a fairly large impact in the general public over the past few years with companies, such as Google and Apple using voice command regularly (i.e. Siri), or with ordering services like Amazon that have been delivering products to people’s front door in two hours using drones. The automotive industry has moved to producing more autonomous vehicles which can be seen in Google cars, or automatic parking in newer luxury vehicles. I do not wish to take any merit away from the talented scientists who made this possible especially considering the short time frame in which it was done. However, it is important to realize that as of yet two hour deliveries are limited to a few major cities, that most Americans cannot afford a high-end luxury vehicle that includes self-driving technologies, and perhaps most note-worthy nearly one-third of United States residents do not have a smart phone. 

The argument that in the future transportation will move towards self-driving vehicles, that would make “traffic jams and parking challenges become obsolete,” is a ridiculously optimistic assumption. First of all, self-driving cars will not be affordable to the average American for another few years. Tesla’s Model 3 is a step in the right direction, but with a base price thirty thousand dollars, not including the self-driving package, it is not the most accessible vehicle. Furthermore, your average modern-day vehicle has a lifespan of around 11.4 years. Most people keep their cars anywhere from 6 to 8 years before getting a new one, meaning that if you bought an affordable car in the next few years, it would last you another 10. Not to mention the quantities of people who wouldn't use those features, or maybe just don’t want a car with those capabilities, similar to people today who do not use smart phones. 

In conclusion, I do agree that that artificial intelligence has the potential to solve problems and do so much good in our society to the point of virtually ridding our world of some of it current problems, however I believe the time constraint in which this will happen is not 15 years from now. The researchers have made good points, and introduced a viable path for AI, however I believe they tried to fit their all their ideas into an unrealistic time constraint.  

