Challenging the Optimism of a Future With AI 

	The Stanford One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence envisions a positive future. However, there are two main issues with the authors vision. The majority of the population will not be using self-driving vehicles in the near future, and AI will not improve the job industry.
      In regards to self-driving vehicles, the authors say “Autonomous transportation will soon be commonplace” (18). With the anticipated launch of Tesla’s fully autonomous software update in the next couple of years, the public will finally see the first fully autonomous vehicle available for purchase. However, such functionality relies heavily on regional jurisdiction and weather conditions. In Midwestern climates, such as our own, a self-driving car would have limited functionality when the roads are snowy. Tesla’s vehicles, for example, use cameras to detect road paint, which is used for lane departure and recognition. When this paint becomes covered, the autonomy of the vehicle is lost. Also, most people cannot afford these vehicles, as Tesla’s cheapest car with the self-driving package is priced at $38,000. Tesla is also currently the only company who will be releasing an autonomous vehicle (AV) for public consumption. Google and Waymo AV vehicles are still under development and are not expected to be released anytime soon.
	In the study, the authors envision passengers as not paying attention to the road. They say, “With self-driving car technology, people will have more time to work or entertain themselves during their commutes” (21). While this is alluring, it is simply not the direct future. Current self-driving traffic laws still require drivers to be aware of the road and have their hands next to the wheel at all times. In 2016, for example, a driver was killed while using Autopilot on his Tesla, with the cause of death being negligence to observe road conditions. For the reasons mentioned above, I do not see as optimistic as a future as the authors do for AVs.
	The study also mentions a future where AI causes jobs to be lost, but the job loss will be counter acted by cheaper goods and services. They say, “But the new jobs that will emerge [from AI] are harder to imagine in advance than the existing jobs that will likely be lost. AI will also lower the cost of many goods and services, effectively making everyone better off” (8). If jobs are lost because they can be replaced by AI, odds are the other jobs those people are qualified for would also be replaced by AI (think of a factory job). This would cause the person to resort to a job that they are not comfortable with, or would cause them to be unemployed long-term, which may lead to a higher crime rate. While AI can certainty reduce prices of goods and services, it will not counter act the loss of jobs that result. No benefit comes from cheaper goods and services when a large share of the population does not have enough money to buy them. For reasons such as these, I do not agree that “everyone will be better off” as AI replaces jobs.
	Even with the extremely positive outlook envisioned by the authors, the future will not be as cheery as they think. Self-driving cars are years and years away from becoming common, and AI will not improve the job market. 

