	One major prospect for the future of artificial intelligence, as suggested in the Stanford One Hundred Year Study 2016 Report, is the advent of self-driving automobiles. The study asserts a prediction that the operation of such vehicles will become commonplace in the near future, to the point that flying automobiles will be introduced in 2030. According to the studys prediction, as cars will become better drivers than people, city dwellers will own fewer cars, live further from work, and spend time differently, leading to an entirely new urban organization. Nevertheless, despite these potential advantages, it might be too early to conclude, with certainty, that self-driving vehicles will become a social pastime by the year 2030. There are at least three noteworthy obstacles which might delay mainstream adaption of self-driving automobiles beyond the predicted year.
	One obstacle is that fully autonomous vehicles will take a very long time to comprise a large share of vehicles sold in the automobile market. As Paul Carlson and Johanna Zmud noted in a recent article for Business Insider, there are currently few automobiles on the road which contain any automation features. According to their prediction, these vehicles are unlikely to appear in dealer showrooms (in large numbers) nationwide for at least a decade. Furthermore, Carlson and Zmud proceed to assert that the share of self-driving vehicles on the road will be further delayed by the common trend of people continuing to use their current cars for a long time. (Carlson & Zmud, 2017) As with any other new automobile model, the product must be available to the public for an extensive period before it can become commonplace.
	Another obstacle is the need to legislate policies adjust for the autonomous vehicles. In the absence of drivers, both localized and state governments will need to pass regulations regarding the use of self-driving vehicles. Both Carlson and Zmud predict that this phase will take place in cities first, due to the relative flexibility of municipal governments; the authors cite the testing of robotic taxis in Phoenix, Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Nevertheless, state agencies will need to prepare regulations for these vehicles to drive across interstate highways. According to Carlson and Zmud, regulations for interstate highways are highly complex, and are more likely to be enacted long after the vehicles are technologically capable of driving across state lines. (Carlson & Zmud, 2017) In short, fully autonomous vehicles will be prepared for the open road much more quickly than the open road will be prepared for the vehicles.
	Last, but not least, cities and states will need to build the necessary infrastructure for these vehicles to operate safely on public roads. This infrastructure will be highly expensive, and thus pose a significant financial burden on public agencies. Carlson and Zmud explain that public infrastructure will be necessary to facilitate the vehicles communication with roads, markings, signs, traffic signals and other vehicles. The authors then proceed to state that several states lack sufficient funds to repair current bridges and roads; this lack of funds further contributes to their financial burden. (Carlson & Zmud, 2017). The need to establish infrastructure will further delay the popularity and prevalence of self-driving automobiles.
	The findings of these authors suggest that, although self-driving vehicles are likely to make a significant impact on the market, it might not become a common product by 2030. Therefore, it is likely that fully autonomous vehicular technology might not develop in the marketplace as quickly as the Stanford report predicts. Only time will tell to see how quickly artificial intelligence advances in the automobile industry.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-the-future-of-self-driving-cars-realistically-looks-like-2017-7
