5
 170,000 in consumer services; almost half a million men in industry, over half
 of whom are in handicrafts; and some 60,000 male students of military age.

5. There is of course no fixed percentage of these men who can be spared or
 military duty. Hanoi has already drawn men from the civilian economy for
 military and war-related tasks, replacing them where possible with women.
 Taking large additional numbers of men would obviously involve some additional
 costs to the civilian economy, but this would be a question of priorities in
 Hanoi. Losses in agricultural and industrial production can be made up by imports
 to the extent necessary to maintain essential subsistence levels of consumption;
 consumer services are to some degree expendable and education can be
 postponed. Thus we believe that the manpower problem, while growing more
 serious, is still manageable in North Vietnam. At a conservative estimate we
 believe there are some 100,000 to 200,000 men who could be called into military
 service, in addition to the annual draft class.

B. The Armed Forces

6. The North Vietnamese Armed Forces expanded last year and are now
 extimated to total about 470,000. Despite better evidence on their strength,
 there are still some uncertainties concerning the actual stength of units, the
 number of North Vietnamese Army (NVA) troops in Laos, and the size of the
 Armed Public Secrity Forces. The following table should be regarded as a
 conservative estimate.

TABLE 1
 ESTIMATED NORTH VIETANAMESE ARMED FORCES
 1 October 1967
 SUMMARY
 Army                                447,500
 Air Force                             4,500
 Navy                                  2,500
 Armed Public Security Forces         16,500
 TOTAL Armed Forces                  471,000
 North Vietnamese Army Breakdown
 Out-of-Country
 South Vietnam                        54,000
 Laos                                 18,000
 TOTAL                                72,000
 In-Couatry
 Infantry                            171,500
 Air Defense                          93,000
 Other                               111,000
 TOTAL                               375,500

a This includes only regular army personnel in AAA units, radar, and SAM battalions. It
 does not include part-time air defense personnel such as militia, or logistical troops supporting
 air defense.

b This includes artillery, armor, high command, logistics, engineers, and transportation.


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