CONCLUSIONS
 A. During the past year, Hanol's direct control and share
 of the burden of the war in South Vietnam has grown substantially.
 This trend will continue.
 B. Manpower is a major problem confronting the Communists.
 Losses have been increasing and recruitment in South Vietnam is
 becoming more difficult. Despite heavy infiltration from North
 Vietnam, the strength of the Communist military forces and
 political organizations in South Vietnam declined in the last
 year. The major portion of this decline has probably been felt
 at the lowest levels, reflecting a deliberate policy of sacrificing
 this level to maintain the structure of political cadres and the
 strength of the Regular military forces.
 C. Given current Communist strategy, and levels of operations,
 a major effort will be necessary if the Regular forces and the
 guerrillas are to be maintained at or near present levels. To
 do so will require both a level of infiltration much higher than
 that observed in 1967 and intensive Viet Cong (VC) recruitment as
 well. Considering all the relevant factors, however, we believe
 there is a fairly good chance that the overall strength and
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