4. The number of physically fit males above and beyond the
 annual increment of those reaching age 17 and who are not yet in
 the armed forces is substantial. The primary limit on military
 mobilization is determined by the number of men that can be pulled
 from the civilian economy. There are a number of areas from which
 manpower could be taken with merginal cost to the economy, but these
 could be drawn down even further, especially if Hanoi were to rely
 to a greater extent on imports to offset production losses incurred
 as a result of the manpower diversions.
 5. The most obvious source of manpower is agriculture, where
 there are almost 3 million men of all ages, and per capita production
 is low. There are also about half a million men in the ??
 sector of the economy, including 170,000 in consumer services;
 almost half a million men in industry, over half of whom are in
 handicrafts; and some 60,000 male students of military age. Hanoi
 has already obtained men for military and war-related tasks by
 taking some from the civilian labor force and replacing them where
 possible with women, particularly in agriculture but we have no
 convincing evidence that the regime has been forced into a major
 effort to drain its nonfarm manpower sources. Thus at a conservative
 estimate we believe that there are some 100 to 200 thousan men who
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