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Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE) no. 10-1-67 entitled: "Reactions to a Certain U.S. Course of Action." This document assesses probable Communist and Free World reactions to the establishment of an anti-infiltration system designed to impede t"Reactions to a Certain US Course of Action". Report. Central Intelligence Agency. TOP SECRET. Issue Date: Jul 13, 1967. Date Declassified: Apr 06, 2005. Complete. 17 page(s).
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D. The Antivehicular Sector
20. The overall Communist roadnet in Laos consists of some 650 miles of routes extending from Mu Gia Pass to the tri-border area of Cambodia, Laos, and South Vietnam. During the dry season, some 400 to 600 trucks are employed on this roadnet. Therefore, the number of trucks passing a given point during a 24-hour period is very low, and most movements take place during hours of darkness.
21. The new elements for the Communists to cope with along the roadnet would be the mines and the intensive use of sensors to detect truck movements. The system would still rely on air strikes to destroy the trucks, and the Communist response would probably be to strengthen existing air defense measures and conduct extensive mine clearing operations. This would probably involve increased requirements in the daily tonnage of supplies, particularly ammunition and food, and in manpower.
22. The road system already included bypasses, truck parks, turnouts, concealed hideaways and overhead trellises to hinder air detection. These would almost certainly be increased. The Communists would continue to rely on the movement of small convoys at night or during bad weather, with considerable space between vehicles. Since it is difficult to create new routes for truck traffic, and because the sensors would be more effective in detecting the truck movements than personnel movements, the Communists would probably devote a considerable effort to thwarting the sensors along the truck routes than along the trail system. Should these countermeasures be ineffective or too costly, the Communists would be forced to attempt to extend the roadnet further west in Laos or resort to other means.
E. Alternative Routes and Sources of Supply
23. River Traffic in Laos. Within Laos itself, one alternative for the Communists would be increased use of river traffic, but although this is more feasible for moving supplies than personnel, it has definite limitations. The only river that might be used through parts of the antivehicular sector is the Se Bang Hieng which flows west and south from the western DMZ. At present, the only access to the river from North Vietnam, however, is via the trail network in Laos, but North Vietnamese Routes 102 and 103 could probably be extended to the river.
24. Sea Routes. We believe that infiltration by sea has been greatly reduced since the beginning of the Market Time Operation early in 1965. Nevertheless, if the Communists were willing to risk substantial losses, they would probably be able to infiltrate some weapons and ammunition by sea. The use of sea routes would be uncertain, and considering the present disposition of Communist forces in South Vietnam, it would present them with new problems in the distribution and delivery of materials, particularly ammunition. We believe that, while the Communists would attempt to increase the use of sea routes as the
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Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE) no. 10-1-67 entitled: "Reactions to a Certain U.S. Course of Action." This document assesses probable Communist and Free World reactions to the establishment of an anti-infiltration system designed to impede t"Reactions to a Certain US Course of Action". Report. Central Intelligence Agency. TOP SECRET. Issue Date: Jul 13, 1967. Date Declassified: Apr 06, 2005. Complete. 17 page(s). Reproduced in Declassified Documents Reference System. Farmington Hills, Mich.: Gale, 2008.
Document Number: CK3100574299
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