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REACTIONS TO A CERTAIN
 US COURSE OF ACTION

THE PROBLEM

To estimate probable Communist and Free World reactions to the
 establishment of an anti-infiltration system in South Vietnam and Laos.

ASSUMPTION

This paper does not assess the degree of effectiveness of the antiinfiltration
 system. It merely assumes, for the purpose of estimating
 reactions, that the system will be sufficiently effective to require the
 North Vietnamese to take countermeasures.

CONCLUSIONS

A. At its present level the Communist war effort in South Vietnam
 is dependent on arms, ammunition and combat personnel moving from
 North Vietnam through Loas and the DMZ. The Vietnamese Communists
 would take direct and vigorous military countermeasures
 against all elements of any system designed to impede this movement.
 In such efforts they could count on technical and material assistance
 from, the USSR and Communist China, but not on their active military
 participation.

B. The Communists would probably harass the manned physical
 barrier in South Vietnam intensively in order to tie down large US
 forces in the area. They would make a major effort to keep truck
 traffic moving along the roadnet and men along the trails. In particular,
 they would recognize the key role of air operations in installing
 and monitoring the airdropped; portions of the system as well as in
 making air strikes. Therefore they would move to increase their air
 defenses in the DMZ area and in Laos.

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