4

barrier an enlargement of the "Ky barrier" now being built would be completed
 at that time. The central and western sections of the system would rely
 on air strikes to attack the targets. Small teams, including some Americans,
 would be involved in emplacing certain types of sensors in Laos.

II. POLITICAL REACTIONS

A. Communist Attitudes

3. Although the US action would not come as a surprise to the Communists,
 they would criticize the US for widening the war in Laos, killing innocent people,
 and violating the Geneva Accords; these things they could do without referring
 to North Vietnam's own activities in the area. Hanoi, however, would have
 some reasons to limit its reactions since it has never admitted publicly to the
 presence of any of its forces in South Vietnam or Laos. Hanoi might also be
 concerned that the US action would lead to the introduction of Allied ground
 troops into the Laotian corridor. The Communists therefore probably would
 seek to put pressure on the Laotian Government and to play on Souvanna's
 fears of a wider war.

4. The intensity and nature of the Communist response would depend in considerable
 part on the effectiveness of the anti-infiltration system and the publicity
 which accompanied its emplacement. If it proved to be ineffective, there would
 be little or no reaction, particularly from Hanoi. If the system were effective,
 Communist pressures on Laos would be more severe, and the attempt
 to condemn the US before international opinion would be more vociferous. We
 think the Communists would also try to obtain some advantage from the situation
 by renewing arguments that US bombing of North Vietnam should be stopped.
 On balance, we believe the US move in itself would probably not cause Hanoi
 to change its political and military strategy toward the conduct of the war in
 South Vietnam.

5. Peking would be noisier than Hanoi in its propaganda. The Chinese might
 send technical advisors to assist the North Vietnamese in work against the
 system in Laos. We doubt that they would send any large number of Chinese
 personnel into Laos or North Vietnam. If the system proved to be effective,
 Peking would probably attempt to help expand supply channels through Cambodia
 as an alternative system, making use of the Chinese population and other
 assets there. The reaction of the Soviets would be influenced by their role as
 co-Chairman of the Geneva Agreements. They would exert pressures on
 Souvanna, but it is unlikely they would denounce the Geneva Agreements, demand
 on-site inspection, or withdraw as co-Chairman. Moscow might also reemphasize
 its argument that the US should give up the bombing of North
 Vietnam.

B. Non-Communist Attitudes

6. Non-Communist reactions would be mixed but would generally follow
 along established lines. They would also be determined by the degree of

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