levels by aliminating all but essential military and economic
 goods, daily imports would average about 3,000 tons a day.
 This amount of traffic could be handled even if the daily
 capacity of North vietnam's transport system were reduced
 to 3,900 tons.
 21. Imports at this level would not be sufficient to
 continue operations of modern industrial plants or to restore
 operation of those which have received extensive bomb damage.
 The economy would be reduced to its essential subsistence
 character, but those modern sectors such as transportation,
 construction, communications, and other elements essential
 to support the military establishment in North Vietnam and
 in the South could be sustained.
 Losses of US Pilots and Aircraft
 22. Alternative II, particularly in the variant calling
 for attacks on port facilities and other targets in the Haiphone
 area, would be the most costly in terms of losses of US pilots
 and aircraft. A total of 28 aircraft or 35 percent of the total
 were lost in combat during attacks against targets located in
 Route Package VI during January-April 1967. The extension of
 the Rolling Thunder program to attacks in the Hanoi-Haiphong
 area has resulted in an extremely high loss rate. During
 -12-
 
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