January-April 1967, the US air forces operating over all
 of North Vietnam experienced a loss rate of 0.33 percent.
 During the period 20 April-14 May 1967, the forces attacking
 targets in the immediate Hanoi-Haiphong area had a loss rate
 of 3.6 percent.
 23. In addition, the concentration of attack on the
 Hanoi-Haiphong area will result in a sharp decline in the
 recovery of downed pilots because of the heavy defenses and
 greater population in the area. Although statistics on
 recovery of downed pilots by Route Package area are not
 available, the recovery rate has declined markedly as the air
 campaign extended into the Hanoi-Haiphong area. During ??
 the recovery rate was 40 percent. During the ?? four
 months of 1967 the recovery rate declined to 28 percent.
 Soviet and Chinese Responses
 24. The first variant of Alternative II would not
 necessarily be perceived by the Communists as a change in
 US bombing policy. While it would become apparent that the
 US was avoiding certain fixed targets and the Hanoi and
 Haiphong vicinities, Hanoi, Peking, and Moscow would probably
 read the attacks on all the airfields as an intensification
 of the air war.
 -13-
 
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