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University of Wisconsin - Madison

_______ Document 30 of 861 _______

Intelligence assessment of Libya's reaction to a planned 8/18-8/20/81 U.S. naval exercise in the Gulf of Sidra. Issues include: Libyan tactical military options; Libyan nonmilitary options; reactions from West European and Arab countries; reaction of the Libyan populace; the Soviet response. Memo. Central Intelligence Agency. TOP SECRET. Issue Date: Aug 10, 1981. Date Declassified: Feb 23, 2001. Complete. 9 page(s).

TOP SECRET UMBRA
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT-ORCON

-- Reaction in the Arab world generally will be negative
but nonspecific. The exercise, however, will be seen
in the context of recent Israeli hostice actions and
could accelerate the downturn in US-Arab relations.

-- Most West European governments will react critically,
especially if the major governments are not consulted
or individually notified in advance of the routine
NOTAM.

-- The Soviets will be able to speed the pace and broaden
the scope of their military cooperation with Libya.

-- Some results of the operation inimical to US interests
could be mitigated if the operation were delayed until
late September.

(1) The number of US citizens in Libya would be
reduced.

(2) A perceived connection with recent aggressive
Israeli activity might be lessened.

TOP SECRET UMBRA

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