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University of Wisconsin - Madison

_______ Document 30 of 861 _______

Intelligence assessment of Libya's reaction to a planned 8/18-8/20/81 U.S. naval exercise in the Gulf of Sidra. Issues include: Libyan tactical military options; Libyan nonmilitary options; reactions from West European and Arab countries; reaction of the Libyan populace; the Soviet response. Memo. Central Intelligence Agency. TOP SECRET. Issue Date: Aug 10, 1981. Date Declassified: Feb 23, 2001. Complete. 9 page(s).

TOP SECRET UMBRA
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT-ORCON

Libyan Perceptions

Qadhafi believes that the United States seeks to dominate
the Arab world. During the past two years he has demonstrated
increased sensitivity to US military operations of the Libyan
coast. Growing international isolation has intensified his
personal fears of US plots and provocations. Recent statements
by US Government officials, persistent US media coverage
of "the Libyan threat," and the closing of the People's
Bureau in Washington compound his unease. On 3 August.
Libya complained to the UN Security Council that the United
States was mounting a "campaign of aggression" against
Libya.

Libyan Options

Tactical Military Options

Given the foregoing, a hostile Libyan reaction is a
distinct possibility. Qadhafi claims the Gulf of Sidra
south of 32� 30'N to be sovereign Libyan territory. Libyan
aircraft patrolling off the coast have fired warning shots
at French aircraft on two occasions.

TOP SECRET UMBRA

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