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should Libya decide to take hostile action against US
 units, it has several options available:

-- First, Libyan fighters could attempt to intercept
 US aircraft. In this regard. Syrian pilots
 operating from Benina are probably more likely
 to initiate an air-to-air engagement than Libyan
 pilots.

-- Second, Libya could attempt a strike against US
 surface unites with fighter aircraft using AS-9
 antiradition missiles. Libyan pilots have not
 been noted training for antiship attacks in
 recent years, and their proficiency in this role
 is probably low.

-- Third, Libya could order one of its F-Class diesel
 attack submarines to attack a US ship. Although
 US antisubmarine warfare assets are likely to have
 Libyan submarines under surveillance, a torpedo
 attack could take place without warning.

Even if a premeditated decision to engage US forced is
 not made, the possibility of a hostile incident through miscalculation
 exists and will increase during the exercise.
 Libya will probably launch a large number of fighters, and
 a number of naval unites will probably attempt to monitor the
 exercise. The scope of these likely reactions may cause
 command and control problems for Libyan authorities, increasing
 the possibility that an order might be misunderstood or
 that an overeager crew might exceed its authority. (S)

Nonmilitary Options

Petroleum Embargo. Potential Libyan economic reprisals
 could take the form of an oil embargo against the United
 States and those West European countries that service 6th

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