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hand could be plausibly denied. Links to certain radical
 Palestinian groups would make them the obvious vehicles for
 such Libyan retaliation, although other subversive organizations
 might be utilized. Qadhafi has shown some sensitivity
 to US accusations of terrorist sponsorship and would take pains
 to deny Libyan involvement. (S NF NC OC)

Third Party Reactions

West Europeans

Many West Europeans will consider the exercise to be
 provocative and lacking strategic or political purpose. Lack
 of prior consultation could seriously sharpen West European
 reactions. And a military incident could significantly reduce
 the chances of any West European participation in a Sinai
 peacekeeping force. Some of the allies might feel that, without
 warning, they were being forced to face the possibility
 of an oil boycott and terrorist attacks against US interests
 in Western Europe:

-- An oil boycott might not be a major economic threat,
 but could produce political difficulties as a result
 of its psychological effect on populations that
 vividly remember the panic of the 1973-74 boycott.

-- The West Europeans would take the possibility of
 terrorist attacks of their soil very seriously,
 since several states have experienced them before.
 (S NF)

In addition:

-- The United Kingdom, having been asked to help protect
 US citizens in the event of an emergency in
 Libya, would be incredulous at a failure by the
 United States to consult adequately on its intentions
 to increase the risks of one. London would
 worry that Qadhafi might retaliate against UK

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