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meeting, the US naval exercise will cause Soviet propaganda
 to be especially strident in an effort to isolate the United
 States, Egypt, and Israel while aligning the USSR with the
 Arab states. In addition, Moscow will use this example of US
 "aggression" to exacerbate anti-American feeling in Western
 Europe. Immediate Soviet military reaction, however, is
 likely to be low-key and limited to surveillance by the USSR's
 existing Mediterranean units. The Soviets could also send
 reconnaissance aircraft to monitor the maneuvers. Moscow
 will try to erode Qadhafi's previous opposition to a permanent
 Soviet military presence--such as naval reconnaissance aircraft
 or access to facilities--by arguing that such a presence would
 deter the United States, Israel, and Egypt. The Soviets could
 also offer to expand their military advisory presence in Libya,
 or suggest a friendship treaty following Syrian or South Yemeni
 precedents. Over the longer term, the Soviets might offer to
 hold a military exercise with the Libyan armed forces to demonstrate
 their support. (S NF)

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