TOP SECRET

The Ethiopian advances are causing major concern among Somali
 government and military officials. Ethiopian forces are now in a better
 position both to hamper the guerrilla operations of the WSLF and to
 support activities inside Somalia by the SSF.

Political Ramifications

The latest Ethiopian offensive has generated considerable domestic
 pressure on President Siad to step up the military effort. Annexation
 of the Ogaden is central to Siad's grand scheme for a reunification of
 all Somali people, and is one of the few issues on which all Somalis are
 in accord. He cannot afford to lose the Ogaden through either a military
 defeat or a negotiated settlement that does not satisfy key elements
 within the government and armed forces.

army officers are leaning hard on Siad to
 commit additional troops in the Ogaden. Siad
 may be unable to resist this pressure unless he can provide
 evidence that US military and economic assistance is forthcoming. Siad
 is increasingly bitter over what he perceives as the lack of supporters
 with influence in Washington; he claims that a strong pro-Ethiopian
 lobby is undermining the budding US-Somali military relationship.

Siad has been in difficult positions before and has proven himself
 a master in balancing competing interests. But he could well become
 the scapegoat at some point for Somalia's military reverses, particularly
 if the expectation of significant US military and economic assistance as
 a result of the facilities agreement is not realized. Many in the
 military hold inflated expectations of US assistance and are likely to
 blame Siad--and perhaps even attempt to oust him--if sufficient materiel
 is not forthcoming. Siad is banking on the US to come through, believing
 that Washington's need for Somali military facilities gives it a stake
 in his survival.

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