T-O-P S-E-C-R-E-T

capability (IOC)._2/ Such a test period is comparable to Soviet
 and US experience with first generation ICBMs. Thus, an IOC in
 early 1972 is possible; but in light of the Chinese record and
 considering general political and economic conditions in China,
 it is more likely to be later, perhaps even by two or three years.

7. The recent information sheds no new light on the characteristics
 of the Chinese ICBM system. The test facilities appear
 adequate to handle thrusts large enough to carry a warhead
 to a range of 6,000 miles.

8. As for warhead availability, sufficient fissionable
 material, including plutonium, should be available for a modest
 program by the time the missile system is ready for deployment.
 China's last nuclear test in December 1967 was probably aimed
 at reducing the size and weight of a thermonuclear weapon.

2/ We mean, in the Chinese case, two or three missiles deployed
 with trained crews at operational sites.

- 5 -

T-O-P S-E-C-R-E-T

3.3(b)(1),
 6.2(c)
 COPY LBJ LIBRARY