T-O-P S-E-C-R-E-T

Force Projection

9. We have no basis for estimating how far the Chinese will
 carry the deployment of their first generation ICBM. Their decision
 and performance will depend on political-military developments as
 well as on economic and technical capabilities. We believe the
 Chinese will not be able to deploy a large force of ICBMs in the
 first few years. By this we mean that by the end of the first 3
 years of deployment they could probably achieve a force of somewhere
 between 10 and 20 operational ICBM launchers. Hence, assuming
 the earliest possible IOC of 1972, the Chinese are not likely to
 have more than 20 or so ICBMs deployed by 1975. If the Chinese
 made a maximum effort and were successful, they could conceivably
 double that number. But we believe the chances for delays and
 difficulties are high and it would be unrealistic to estimate that
 the Chinese would reach a force level of 40 or so ICBM launchers by
 1975. There is no evidential basis for estimating the accuracy
 and reliability of China's first ICBM, but we believe that they
 will fall considerably below present Soviet performance.

10. A major attempt to put the first generation ICBM in
 hardened sites or to develop a second generation system would

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T-O-P S-E-C-R-E-T

3.3(b)(1),
 6.2(c)
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