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retard deployment of their first system. We believe it is unlikely
 that the Chinese could deploy hardened first generation missiles
 before 1974 at the earliest. Though a large solid propellant
 facility is under construction at Hu-ho-hao-te, the Chinese probably
 will not be able to deploy a solid propellant ICBM before 1975.

11. The Chinese could probably develop relatively simple
 exoatmospheric decoys, e.g., balloons, by the time of first deployment.
 The development of an effective chaff system and of sophisticated,
 endoatmospheric decoys almost certainly could not be
 accomplished by 1975. Multiple reentry vehicles are also unlikely
 to be available by this time. Though the first generation warhead
 may have some inherent hardness, we have no basis for making quantitative
 estimates about the hardness of this or future warheads.

II. MISSILE SUBMARINES

12. The Chinese launched a G-class submarine in October 1964.
 We believe this boat has not done any missile firing and in general
 has not been active.
 If construction were to begin soon,

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3.3(b)(1),
 6.2(c)
 3.3(b)(1),
 6.2(c)
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