CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR
 26 March 1968
 MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Walt W. Rostow
 Special Assistant to the President
 SUBJECT: The Growing Strength of North Vietnamese Army
 Forces in South Vietnam
 1. In response to the President's request, we have taken a fresh look
 at out data on North Vietnamese Army (NVA) strength in South Vietnam and the
 rates of North Vietnamese infiltration over recent months.
 2. Force Levels. During the past three or four months there has been
 a dramatic increase in the movement of regular North Vietnamese Army units
 into South Vietnam. This Agency now believe that last fall (I November) there
 were over 70,000 North Vietnamese soldiers fighting in South Vietnam. The
 number has risen rapidly in the past five months and today may be over 100,000.
 This increase in NVA strength in South Vietnam has been achieved despite the
 thousands of casualties suffered by the North Vietnamese in the intensified combat
 of the past two months.
 3. The following tabulation shows what we believe to be the relative
 strengths of VC and NVA Main and Local forces as of 1 November 1967 and
 25 March 1968, without adjustment for casualties:
              1 November 1967 25 March 1968
 NVA Forces
 In NVA units    61,000         88,000
 In VC units     10,000         15,000
 Sub total       71,000        103,000
 VC Forces       71,000         61,000
 Total          142,000        164,000
 
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