4. The above tabulation shows that the relative strength of NVA forces
 probably increased from 50 percent of total Main and Local force strength on
 1 November 1967 to 63 percent as of late March 1968. The relative strength
 of NVA forces is even groator when these figures are adjusted for the extraordinary
 casualties of the Tot offensive (30 January-21 February 1968). We
 have made a very rough and preliminary estimate that the bulk of these
 casualties were sustained by VC Main and Local forces (including guerrillas
 upgraded and attach?? Local force units.) We estimate tentatively that the
 infiltration of NVA fillers has been more than adequate to maintain NVA force
 levels at their pre-Tet level of some 100,000 troops. VC Main and Local force
 strength has probably declined to a level of about 45,000-50,000 troops.
 5. Thus, we estimate that today there may be nearly two times as many
 North Vietnamese regular army soldiers in South Vietnam as there are VC
 regular (i.e., Main and Local force) soldiers. In the I Corps area. NVA units
 account for 80 percent of the enemy forces. On a country-wide basis North
 Vietnam now has nine divisions, consisting of 26 regiments, plus an additional
 16 independent regimental equivalents deployed in South Vietnam. This compares
 to a VC Main and Local force strength of two divisions of three regiments each
 and an additional 22 regimental equivalents. Perhaps a third of what we carry
 as the "VC" force is actually composed of North Vietnamese Army personnel.
 6.
 7.
 8.
 - 2 -
 
 TOP SECRET
 TOP SECRET
 SC No. 05497-68
 Copy No. 1
 COPY LBJ LIBRARY
 33