9. The picture for the past two months. February and March, is much
 less clear, but it is one of a marked increase in the usual indicators of infiltration
 suggesting significant movement.
 We are not sure of the personnel strength of any of these
 groups, but there is indirect evidence that they each approximate battalion
 strength -- about 400 men.
 10. In addition, we have had unusually good evidence
 that battalion size groups are deploying
 southward through the central section of North Vietnam. More than 20 such
 groups have been noted in the period 2-25 March. Some of these groups may be
 now have progressed for enough south to be reflected among the 21 subscribers
 on the Hanoi external radio net.
 11. We cannot provide firm figures for infiltration in February and
 March, but the evidence suggests that at least about 4,000 NVA troops entered
 South Vietnam in February and at least some 8,000 will arrive during the month
 of March.
 12. In sum,we believe that something on the order of 35-40,000 NVA
 personnel have been infiltrated into South Vietnam since I November 1967.
 Furthermore.
 While we cannot confidently estimate the size of this
 additional deployment, the available evidence suggests it could be on the order
 of magnitude of two division equivalents.
 George A. Carver. Jr.
 Special Assistant for Vietnamese Affairs
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