Re[2]: VN contra China

[Buulong Nguyen <buulong@dutmpw1.tudelft.nl>]

On Thu, 20 Mar 1997 nguyen.d@ccmail.cgi.fr wrote:

>      You talk a lot about strategy, but you forget the most important and 
>      basic thing : the men !!!

Dear anh Tuan and VNSA-friends, 

I have also sent a number of messages on "China-Vietnam" topic to this forum.

In those message I wrote that Vietnam wouldn't have any other choice but 
a resolute  military reaction. I have listed - to my naif idea - the reasons 
why we need to do that.

Yesterday I discussed the situation with my Dutch friends. They were 
shocked hearing me talking about war. A Dutch girl asked me: "what about
the Vietnamese people who lives in the country?, what about civilian 
victims of the war?" 

It is of course the key question we have to ask talking about war.

I think everyone of us does worry about that. I do too.

The problem however is: if Vietnam doesn't firmly react, it will lose the 
"game".

So we have to choose:

1). Peace for economical development and civil prosperity
2). Undertake a firm military reaction
3). Seaking international support
4). (a kind of combination of 1 & 2) Develop the economy, building up 
meantime military forces and by the first opportunity take back the 
territory occupied by China.

Let's consider every option listed above:

Option1: - This option seems to be sensible taking into account civilian
	loss and other miseries that a war brings with it.
	- Unfortunately it also has disadvantage, namely:  
		+ It means we have to tolerate the Chinese arrogance
	and to (impotently) see how China takes step by step our water
	territory with all natural resources (eg. oil &gas resources under 
	the continental shelf, sea foods ..) 
		+ It means that China, in the long run, will get full 
	control on the East Sea (wrongly called "South-Chinese Sea"). That
	will definitively affect Vietnam's economy and security.
		+ Who can ensure us that China will be satisfied with 
	Spratly and not going further South-wards (with ConSon as the 
	following target)
	
	Can we accept the damage?

Option2:  - It might seem to be crazy to talk about war just now, when 
	Vietnam economy begins to take up, when the Vietnamese people, after
	so many years  of war and economical depresssion, finally dare to hope
	for a better live and a bright future (economically, at least) 
	  - On the other hand it seems to be the only way for Vietnam to
	maintain its sovereignty and to avoid further territory loss. 
	  - Besides, a military conflict in SEA is unwanted by a number of 
	countries because of their economical interest, so hopefully they 
	will undertake some actions to regulate the conflict
	  - The disvantages of this options are well known:
		+ the country will be involved in war. No economical
 	development will be possible. Our people will be killed. Civilian 
	loss is unpredictable.
		+ AND, nobody can ensure us whether we can win that war. 
	Even if positive, we have to consider wheter the loss will be
	tolerable.


Option3:   - Vietnam can try to seak (and find?) international support 
	for a peaceful solution of the conflict, but it seems to me a 
	utopic idea in  despair.
	    We have seen how the world relaxedly watched the skirmish 
	between chinese and vietnamese warships in 1988 and how the chineses, 
 	occupied two islands of the Spratly archipelago.
	    It seems to me that the US, the West, Japan and the ASEAN 
	countries handle until now on the princple "watch and wait".
	As if they don't care whether Vietnam loses  sovereignty on   
	its water territory or not. 
	   - As anh Huy Duong already pointed out in his messages, 
	Vietnam can reckon on international support only if it becomes a 
	"civil society" belonging to the world democratical community. It 
	is still, unfortunately, not the case.
	   - the international community will be however worried by a 
	military conflict in the South-East-Asia Sea. Let's do not forget 
	how important this sea is for this sea lane between Middle East 
	and East/South-East Asia, and how enormous the affect can be to 
	air traffic when the war blasts. Maybe those countries will take 
	then another position? (Cu+' nha('m tha(?ng va`o ca'i da. da`y 
	ma` dda'nh, da^n gian ta ba?o the^')  

	So maybe it is not a too bad idea just to give a firm military 
	answer to the recent chinese provocation.    

Option4: - It sounds to opportunist. How long does it takes before such 
	opportunity occurs? Such opportunity can be a "loa.n su+' qua^n" 
	that weakens China. But if we are going to undertake a military 
	adventure , we'll be confronted with the same problems as by
	 Option 2.
	 - When we restrain ourselves trying  to develop the economy, the 
	chineses do not wait. It will go ahead in completing its 
	geopolitical ambitions
	 - Whether we ever get such opportunity?
_____________________________________________________

I think I have to stop here with bothering you.

The bitter truth is that we, Vietnamese people - abroad or inside the 
country -  do not have any influence on the policy regarding this 
territorial dispute with China.

The decision is up to the today's Vietnamese leaders. Let's hope they 
will be healthy minded when seaking solution for this problem.

Someone of us wrote that the national interest should be put higher than 
interest of any body, let it be a king or an elite group of people. Let's 
hope this healthy thought will come home to people who has the power to 
say the last word.

Take care, my friends

Buu-Long
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