Vietnam & China

[huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk]

Dear friends,

2-3 weeks ago the Economists had a China survey.

I got my figures wrong. The Institute of Strategic Studies
estimates Chinese defence spending to be 30$ bil, roughly the same
as British spending. Just over 10$ bil accounts for most of
ASEAN's spending. So China towers over even ASEAN combined. 

China recently bought 40 SU27 planes, a few guided missile destroyers,
submarines. China sorely needs and is after aircraft carriers
and has tried France, Spain, Russian, the Unkraine. China also needs
assault and landing ships. 

Politically, the real damage to ASEAN is not the islands but the seas.
China first of all claims the islands, and then the 200 miles exclusive
economic zone from the islands. According to the convention of the seas,
the 200 miles EEZ only applies to the shores of the main land mass, but
this illegally inflated claim provides an excuse for China to regard 
vast tracts of other countries' seas as contestable.

China also has overlapping claims with Korea and Japan. These claims are based
on distances from the main lamd mass and are therefore on firmer grounds
than those in South East Asia. Trouble with Korea and Japan will certainly
affect the world. So the world had better not let a precedent be set
in South East Asia.

Huy