Re: Two-envelope problem

[Ha Anh Vu <vu@as.nida.ac.th>]

I would disagree with this solution. This problem is a classical paradox
in statistical decision theory, often being stated to fool novices.  The
punchline is that if you follow this line of reasoning (meaning willing
to exchange the envelopes), then you would deem it wise to exchange the
envelopes one more time and indeed, exchange the envelopes infinitely
many times, an apparent antinomy!

More later,
Vu~

Dung Trong Nguyen wrote:

  1) The expectation value of keeping the $100

          1 x $100 = $100

  2) The expectation value of choosing the other

          1/2 x $50 + 1/2 x $200 = $125

  So it is better to take the risk.

  d~