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[news] Transcript of the PBS talk [2/3]
NORMALIZED RELATIONS
[Vietnam] MAY 15, 1997
TRANSCRIPT
MARGARET WARNER: Now, for more on the -----------
political and economic outlook for [Image] A RealAudio
Vietnam. Virginia Foote is president of version of
the U.S.-Vietnam Trade Council, which this NewsHour segment
represents American companies trying to is available.
do business in Vietnam. Pho Ba Long is an -----------------
independent consultant to businesses and NewsHour Links
[Vietnam] educational institutions in -----------
Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. He May 15, 1997:
was born in the former North Vietnam, A background report
moved to South Vietnam in the 1950's, and on recent diplomatic
then came to the U.S. as a refugee at the steps between the
end of the Vietnam War. He=92s now an U.S. and Vietnam.
American citizen. Adam Schwarz left Hanoi -----------
last November, after two years as Vietnam April 10, 1997:
bureau chief for Far Eastern Economic Treasury Secretary
Review Magazine. He=92s currently a Robert Rubin
visiting fellow at the Johns Hopkins discusses his trip to
School for Advanced International Studies Vietnam with Jim
and he=92s writing a book on Vietnam. Lehrer.
Welcome all of you. -----------
November 25, 1996:
Ginny Foote, what is it going to mean, Jim Lehrer discusses
what does it mean for American interests the latest efforts to
and American businesses to have full improve U.S.-Asia
normalization, to have an ambassador in relations with Bruce
Hanoi? Stokes of the Council
on Foreign Relations.
VIRGINIA FOOTE, U.S.-Vietnam Trade -----------
Council: I think it=92s very [Vietnam] November 21, 1996:
important. It basically Four experts discuss
completes diplomatic normalization the state of
between the U.S. and Vietnam. So U.S.-Asia Trade
symbolically it=92s important, but it=92s relations.
also important because Amb. Peterson and -----------
the Vietnam ambassador in the U.S. are Browse the Online
people of real distinction in their own NewsHour's Economy
countries. So I think the two ambassadors coverage.
will be very helpful in the next step in -----------------
the relationship. Outside Links
-----------
MARGARET WARNER: But I mean, what is The official U.S.
American business looking for? Treasury Department.
-----------
VIRGINIA FOOTE: They=92re looking for
economic normalization, which is the next piece of the overall
relationship, MFN status, the support system of the U.S.
government on full trade relations, and that=92s really what has to
come next.
MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Long, the Vietnamese also wanted [Vietnam]
this normalization and an ambassador. Why was it
important to Vietnam?
PHO BA LONG, Business Consultant: Well, I think that it is very
important because Vietnam wanted to play a good role in the
community of nations, especially within ASEAN, and especially--
MARGARET WARNER: That=92s the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, an umbrella organization.
PHO BA LONG: Especially and next with huge neighbor,
China, want to be recognized as an independent
country--family--with all the other countries, especially in the
region.
MARGARET WARNER: And what do you see as the significance of this
latest development and in terms of what the expectations are by
both the Americans and the Vietnamese?
ADAM SCHWARZ, Journalist: Well, it moves things to a higher level,
having an ambassador on the ground will certainly be viewed
favorably by the American business community, that has [Vietnam]
for a number of years now been clamoring for a
furthering of what Virginia called the economic normalization, and
they will be pleased to have an ambassador on the ground to try to
bring a little bit more clout to bring in the various components
of that relationship forward.
MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Long, is there any residual bitterness among
the Vietnamese toward Americans because of the war?
PHO BA LONG: I am very surprised. I have been back to Vietnam
since 1988, with Larry Pressler.
MARGARET WARNER: Former Senator from South Dakota.
[Vietnam] PHO BA LONG: From South Dakota. And since then I=92ve been
back many times, and I was very surprised that there is
absolutely hardly any bitterness at all. It seems forgotten. It
seems that the French war that preceded the American war has been
clearing the way, more or less. If there is any bitterness I would
say there=92s some worry about China, rather than America.
MARGARET WARNER: Do you--does American business encounter any
lingering bitterness, resentment, any special obstacles because of
the war?
VIRGINIA FOOTE: No. I think actually we have--American [Vietnam]
companies have a very good reputation in Vietnam. The
Vietnamese are looking for the American management skills and
capital and technology. So I think we in some ways have a favored
role in investment in Vietnam, although the relationship has hurt,
overall, American companies=92 ability to go in there, so it=92s a
mixed relationship now.
MARGARET WARNER: Explain that.
VIRGINIA FOOTE: Well, the U.S. is the last country to normalize
with Vietnam. And we don=92t have full trading status, so American
companies still operate with quite a handicap in comparison to
companies from other parts of the world.
[Vietnam] MARGARET WARNER: Let=92s talk a little bit about economic
reform in Vietnam and how far it=92s come. And give us a
little sense, first of all, of the history. Why did this
Vietnamese regime decide to open a door even a little bit to free
market economics?
ADAM SCHWARZ: There are competing views as to sort of what
prompted the government to change tack in the mid 80's. I think--I
think everybody agrees that part of the reason is simply that the
system that they had been following from =9175 to 1985 wasn=92t
working, the country was not getting wealthier. It was not
working, the country was not getting wealthier. It was not
developing. People were going hungry. Production was [Vietnam]
down. So they changed tack, and they=92ve decided what
they call their doi moi economic reform policy have bit by bit
begun to bring in the pieces of a free market system. And in
certain respects to great success; in other respects they haven=92t
probably gone as far yet as they need to, to complete the
transformation.
MARGARET WARNER: And you were there in the very early years of
this effort. How hard was it? How hard is it for a country like
Vietnam to start to embrace free market economics?
PHO BA LONG: I think it is very, very difficult. I think it is a
matter of survival. When the leaders see what=92s going on in
Thailand, and especially in China, I=92m sure they must feel very
worried, that they are behind all these changes, and I think they
think maybe a little too much expectations that normalization in
America may bring about maybe another miracle, in their view,
which I am worried about as well.
MARGARET WARNER: Because you think that=92s unrealistic.
[Vietnam]
PHO BA LONG: It is, and it is also too much expectation
from both sides, too much, too soon.
MARGARET WARNER: How far--from the standpoint of American
business, how far do you think they=92ve come and what haven=92t they
been able to do? We read all the stories about still tremendous
bureaucratic obstacles to doing business there. Tell us a little
bit about it. Give us a sense of what it=92s like.
VIRGINIA FOOTE: Well, I would agree with that and that some of the
changes that they have made have been quite fundamental and the
changes left in front of them are also very important. The
development of a private sector in Vietnam will be important for
American companies. There are still restrictions on who can trade
and how to invest. There=92s the problem of the bureaucracy, is
still very much there. But there=92s also the problem that they=92re
in transition, so they are looking at what other countries have
done, how they have restructured their economies. And I think it=92s
a difficult process. There is no real model for Vietnam to look to
and say we are going to do it like country "X" did it. Every
country has made this transition in quite different ways, and they
are still seeking out what models, what transitions, and in what
order should they--how should they proceed. [Vietnam]
MARGARET WARNER: Our Treasury Sec. Robert Rubin was on this show a
week or so ago after his trip, and he said that when he was over
there, senior officials in the government told him, you know, we
don=92t have people in our government who even understand market
economics. Is that part of the problem?
PHO BA LONG: Well, I think it=92s not only part of the problem, it=92s
also an attitude. People only do not understand; they do not have
the mentality to be able to understand, and I=92m afraid that is
going to be phenomenal, and I think education, what do you call
economic business, international education would be the first
thing in order to make them understand, to convince them, and it
takes some time--it=92s an educational process.
[Vietnam] MARGARET WARNER: How far do you think Vietnam=92s come?
Compare it say to what China=92s done in terms of economic
reform, and give us some examples about what, what obstacles--what
obstacles remain, or what old attitudes remain.
ADAM SCHWARZ: Well, I think China is a very good example to pick.
I think if Vietnam is modeling itself on any one country, I would
pick China as that. You have the combination of a Communist Party
in charge politically and very determined to keep its exclusive
hold on political power, while at the same time trying to
resuscitate economic growth and develop the economy through
adopting free market principles. My sense, after living in Hanoi,
was that actually the government leaders and the party leaders in
Hanoi pay quite close attention to what goes on in China, and the
way China is sequencing its reforms. In certain respects, Vietnam
is ahead of the game. You have to remember, China started its
reform process a good ten years before, and so, therefore, it is
further ahead in what it=92s trying to accomplish, I would say in
particular in private sector developments. In other areas we=92re
still waiting to see what Vietnam is going to do. There has not
been really much fundamental change in the state enterprise
reform.
MARGARET WARNER: Meaning the state businesses--state [Vietnam]
enterprises still are a big part of the economy?
ADAM SCHWARZ: Exactly. And seen to be jobs providers, rather than
enterprise, that need to be profitable and continue under their
own steam. So we--the bureaucracy and sort of this holdover from
an earlier period where it was a production-based mentality and
companies were told how much to produce and profits and revenues
were an after thought. There is still a lot of that attitude in
the government and the way that they look at enterprises and the
way that they view the economy and how economic entities and units
are meant to support the political structure, rather than simply
as wealth generating or revenue generating entities in themselves,
so that--that it=92s an attitude problem.
MARGARET WARNER: Is there a lot of--I=92ve also read a lot of
official corruption still?
VIRGINIA FOOTE: I don=92t think that=92s the fundamental problem,
though. I think that what=92s going to pull Vietnam into the next
phase of their economic reform is their decision to join the World
Trade Organization, and to adapt their economy to international
Trade Organization, and to adapt their economy to international
standards. Corruption issue, the bureaucracy, all of [Vietnam]
these are problems in getting there, but they have made
the fundamental decision of where they are going. And now it=92s
figuring out how to get there and what steps to take and train
people to get there, but the decision really--a fundamental
decision was made some years ago, and I don=92t think they=92re
veering off of that course.
MARGARET WARNER: But if--if you were an American business and you
could go to China, Russia, or Vietnam, which one is easier to do
business in, more promising, with more immediate payoff?
VIRGINIA FOOTE: Well, of course, that varies, depending on what
business you=92re in and what sector. Most large American companies,
most Fortune 500 companies are in all three, and they=92re not
choosing between one or the other. I think for Vietnam it=92s viewed
as a potential market, rather than a place to invest now and have
immediate profits. American companies have been there for about
not quite three years now, since the embargo was lifted. Companies
who are selling consumer products are doing quite well. Companies
that are investing in longer-term investment projects still are
hopeful but they=92re not making a profit yet. So it depends a great
deal on your sector, but I think everybody feels that the
potential is still very bright for Vietnam.
[Vietnam] PHO BA LONG: I would like to comment on Adam=92s view and
the role model. I think they are looking for a better
role model--Singapore. They believe in Singapore, and there is
only one party rule. That=92s what they want, and they think that
Singapore is much more open to the West than China is.
MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, I=92m afraid we=92ll have to leave
it there, but thank you all three very much.
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