Statistics

[huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk]

>To see a paradox as tha^`y Tha('ng has promised, we change the
>condition a little.  The names of two lucky guys then are written down
>in two folded pieces of paper.  As it happened A picked up one of
>them, and saw B's name inside.  So now what is A's chance?

If one of the releaseds is B then the possible combinations
of the releaseds are AB and BC. As such, there is a 0.5 prob
that the combiation is AB, ie a 0.5 prob that A is released.