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[Fwd: [devel-vn] vecon-l The Politics and Economics Transition to an Open Market Economy in Viet Nam]

Summary:

Reform in Viet Nam is a protracted process. Beginning in 1979, it
experienced both
advances and reversals until 1986, a sudden acceleration in 1989-91,
then gradualism
hampered by a deepening entrenchment of interests in positions both for
and against
further liberalisation. A stop-go cycle has developed in which the new
incentives and
opportunities resulting from reform are sufficient to block broad
reversion to earlier phases,
but comprehensive advances would seem to depend on the occurrence of
deeply
unfavourable shocks. When crisis has seriously undermined performance,
leaders have
embraced reform to shore up legitimacy, while in good times they have
tended to disagree
over the long-term risks of reform and how to deal with those risks.


Extract:

Pessimism about Viet Nam's reform process is now rampant among foreign
observers.
A Swedish study concluded in 1996 that "the potential benefits of past
reforms are nearly
exhausted" (Kokko and Zejan, 1996, p. 53). The Geneva-based World
Economic Forum
in 1997 ranked Viet Nam 49 th out of 53 countries in "global
competitiveness" and dead last
in "openness". Even before the 1997 financial crisis in Asia, Fforde
forecast growth to the
end of the decade at almost 5 points below the 12 per cent per annum
forecast at the
VIIIth VCP Congress (Fforde, 1997, pp. 178-179). The World Bank's most
recent report
states that "Viet Nam cannot expect to maintain its recent success or
achieve its medium
term development objectives without deeper reforms. There are already
indications that
slow reform in key areas, notably the financial sector, the state
enterprise sector and trade
policy are beginning to threaten macroeconomic stability and jeopardise
the achievements
of medium-term objectives" (World Bank, 1997, p. i). The International
Monetary Fund,
the Asian Development Bank, and a succession of visitors including Lee
Kwan Yew have
echoed the World Bank in urging Hanoi to take up reform's unfinished
tasks immediately.

sent to devel-vn by weitzel@undp.org.vn (Vern Weitzel)

The publication may be downloaded in .pdf format.
vern

----------
Subject: vecon-l new publication
   Date:Tue, 26 Oct 1999 09:26:46 -0500
   From: "William S. Turley" <wturley@siu.edu>
     To: vecon-l@watarts.uwaterloo.ca


The following citation may be of interest to readers of this
list:

James Riedel and William S. Turley, "The Politics and Economics
of
."  Paris:
Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Development
Centre,
Technical Paper No. 152, September 1999.  It is available
through the OECD
and at http://www.oecd.org/dev/publication/tp1a.htm.

Cheers,
Bill Turley

William S. Turley
Department of Political Science
Southern Illinois University
Carbondale, Illinois, USA 62901-4501
phone:  (618) 453-3182
fax:     (618) 453-3163
UNDP Vietnam - AVSL
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