The Ten-Hundred Plot on COVID-19
I designed a Ten-Hundred Plot to show how fast COVID-19 spreads. If you can count, you can make it by hand!
- Youtube video that explains the Ten-Hundred plot. In short: lower right = good (sub-exponential growth), diagonal = bad (exponential growth), upper left = ugly (super-exponential)
- Matlab / Octave function ten_hundred.m, if you are unfortunate enough to be owned by a computer
- April 24, 2020 plots for selected global and US regions. The lower-left corner, as well as above diagonal, are trouble regions of fast growth. It seems like a number of developing countries are experiencing exponential or even super-exponential growth now, which is concerning. The countries we recently hear frequently in the media are drifting to the right, indicating that their growth is slowing down.
- April 16, 2020 plots for selected global regions. Some areas outside US, Europe were flaring up:
- April 16, 2020 plots for selected US states. All of them were further sub-exponential:
- April 11, 2020 plots for selected global regions. Some areas outside US, Europe were flaring up:
- April 11, 2020 plots for selected US states. All of them were sub-exponential:
- April 4, 2020 plots for selected global regions:
- April 4, 2020 plots for selected US states:
- March 30, 2020 plots for selected global regions and US states. Iran seems to have turned the corner; Spain, France, Italy may be doing slightly better than US, UK, Germany; India is a new concern (closest to the diagonal).
Auxiliary Matlab code and data to reproduce the example plot.
NY seems to be slower than exponential growth. WA is the slowest in terms of growth.
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