Re: [BREAKING NEWS] dollar up ... (fwd)

[Dam Son <son@fermi.phys.washington.edu>]

Tho+`i ba'o kinh te^' VN co' ba`i sau dda^y ve^` vie^.c dollar le^n gia'.
So+n.


Ddo^ La My~ le^n gia'

Minh Hoa`ng

Ddie^`u bi`nh thu+o+`ng xa?y ra trong co+ che^' thi. tru+o+`ng

Chie^`u 13/2/97, co+n "so^'t" ddo^la My~ dda~ lan truye^`n tu+` Nam ra
Ba('c. Ta^'t ca? ca'c cu+?a ha`ng ddo^?i tie^`n tu+ nha^n o+? Ha` No^.i
dde^`u ta(ng gia' nhu+ng va^~n kho^ng dda'p u+'ng no^?i nhu ca^`u cu?a
ngu+o+`i mua. Gia' ca'c cu+?a ha`ng tu+ nha^n mua va`o to+` 100 USD le^n
to+'i 11.420 ddo^`ng/USD, co`n gia' ba'n ra le^n to+'i 11.520 ddo^`ng/USD.
Ne^'u kha'ch ha`ng mua to+` le? (20, 10 va` 50 USD) se~ pha?i tra? gia'
11.550 ddo^`ng/USD. o+? ca'c tha`nh pho^' lo+'n kha'c nhu+ Ha?i Pho`ng,
Qua?ng Ninh, La.ng So+n, Nam Ddi.nh... gia' USD cu~ng le^n to+'i 11.400 -
11.450 ddo^`ng/USD (gia' ba'n ra), ta(ng 100 - 200 ddo^`ng/USD so vo+'i
nga`y 11/2/97. Gia' USD dda~ leo le^n mu+'c 11.550 va`o nga`y 13.2, sau
ddo' tu.t xuo^'ng co`n 11.520 va`o nga`y 14.2 va` 11.500 va`o nga`y 15.2. 

o+? phi'a Nam, sau khi ta(ng ma.nh va`o chie^`u nga`y 12/2/97, gia' USD
tie^'p tu.c ta(ng the^m 20 - 40 dd/USD o+? ha^`u he^'t ca'c ti?nh, gia'
ba'n ra dda~ vu+o+.t qua mu+'c 11.600 dd/USD. Nga`y 12/2/97, nhie^`u nga^n
ha`ng thu+o+ng ma.i o+? phi'a Nam cu~ng ta(ng gia' mua ba'n USD the^m 4 -
8 ddo^`ng/USD so vo+'i ho^m tru+o+'c. 

Theo ba` Kie^`u Thi. Lie^n, Vu. pho' Vu. ngoa.i ho^'i nga^n ha`ng ngoa.i
thu+o+ng Vie^.t Nam, co' the^? gia?i thi'ch co+n so^'t na`y ba(`ng ca'c
nguye^n nha^n chu? ye^'u sau: tre^n the^' gio+'i ddo^`ng Ddo^la My~ le^n
gia' so vo+'i ca'c ddo^`ng tie^`n chuye^?n ddo^?i kha'c; o+? trong
nu+o+'c, nhu ca^`u mua USD sau Te^'t bao gio+` cu~ng le^n cao ho+n
tru+o+'c Te^'t; ho+n nu+~a, da^n chu'ng kho^ng muo^'n gu+?i tie^'t kie^.m
ba(`ng tie^`n Vie^.t ma` gu+?i ba(`ng USD hoa(.c giu+~ USD ne^n ca`ng la`m
ta(ng the^m ca^`u ve^` Ddo^la tie^`n ma(.t. 

Theo mo^.t so^' chuye^n gia gia' ca?, nguo^`n cung USD tie^`n ma(.t tu+`
Nga, Ddo^ng A^u va` nguo^`n kie^`u ho^'i gia?m ma.nh trong m y tha'ng qua
cu~ng la` mo^.t trong nhu+~ng nguye^n nha^n dda^?y gia' USD ta(ng. Nhu+ng
theo ba` Lie^n, nguo^`n kie^`u ho^'i tru+o+'c Te^'t dda~ ta(ng kha' ma.nh
vi` sau khi co' chi'nh sa'ch kie^`u ho^'i mo+'i cu?a Chi'nh phu?, ra^'t
nhie^`u Vie^.t kie^`u mang tie^`n ma(.t ve^` cho ba` con trong nu+o+'c
dde^? dda^`u tu+ kinh doanh. Khoa?n tie^`n ma(.t ngoa.i te^. (chu? ye^'u
ba(`ng USD) do tre^n 50.000 Vie^.t kie^`u mang ve^` trong di.p Te^'t Ddinh
Su+?u vu+`a qua la` ra^'t lo+'n, tuy chu+a co' con so^' tho^'ng ke^ chi'nh
thu+'c. 

Nhie^`u chuye^n gia kinh te^' kha'c cho ra(`ng nguye^n nha^n chu? cho^'t
la` mo'n no+. vay nha^.p kha^?u ha`ng tra? cha^.m qua' lo+'n dde^'n ha.n
va` sa('p dde^'n ha.n tra? cho nu+o+'c ngoa`i ddang dde` na(.ng le^n ta^m
ly' cu?a ngu+o+`i mua, ba'n USD tre^n thi. tru+o+`ng. Ba` Lie^n thi`
kha(?ng ddi.nh ra(`ng dda^y kho^ng the^? la` nguye^n nha^n chi'nh va`
vie^.n ra nhu+~ng chu+'ng cu+' kha' thuye^'t phu.c: no+. do L/C tra?
cha^.m ddang gia?m ra^'t nhie^`u (tha'ng 9/96 la` 1,5 ti?, tha'ng 10 co`n
1,2 ti? va` tha'ng 11 co`n 1 ti? USD - chu+a co' con so^' chi'nh xa'c cu?a
tha'ng 12 nhu+ng kho^ng the^? cao ho+n con so^' 1 ti? cu?a tha'ng 11). 

Xe't ve^` trung ha.n, vie^.c USD ta(ng gia' so vo+'i ddo^`ng USD la` phu`
ho+.p vo+'i xu hu+o+'ng va^.n ddo^.ng cu?a ty? gia' cu?a kinh te^' Vie^.t
Nam va` thu+.c tra.ng ta(ng gia' hie^.n cu?a cu?a USD so vo+'i ha^`u he^'t
ca'c ddo^`ng tie^`n ma.nh tre^n the^' gio+'i. Tuy nhie^n, ddo^`ng Ddo^la
dda~ le^n dde^'n mu+'c cao va` cha('c se~ du+`ng o+? ddie^?m hie^.n nay
trong mo^.t tho+`i gian dde^? sau ddo' ta(ng da^`n le^n kho?ang 12.000
ddo^`ng/USD.