Re: Tru*o*`ng So*n Road ...to Mr. Ca

[wind015 <wind015@ipch.ynu.ac.jp>]

Dear Mr. Ca

> Regarding the Truong Son highway, I think the first job we
> should do is conducting a thourough investigation, analysis,
> and economic forecast before we start constructing the road. The 

I consider the survey, investigation, analysis .. as part of the
job therefore, no objection to it. But it should not take forever
and should not be a pretext to do nothing. Looking coolly at the
situation, what have they done to these days ? Just the preparation
of the legislation, sounding out where to get the money (which should
be part of the preliminary study) and some rhetoric from some guys
who may be used to the old habit of "va^.n ddo^.ng qua^`n chu'ng".
Is that some thing that need thorough investigation ?

I think that you agree with me that Tru*o*`ng So*n Road is very
important for the future development and the question now
is WHEN. In my opinion, if we just try to invest to make fast money 
as you suggested, we will just follow the people like Thailand and
will be condemned to stay behind them forever. In fact that is what
they did some ten years ago. The profit should be maximized but
for more extended period and sometimes, to get a better total profit
in 20-40 years, we have to sacrifice the profit of first 1-5  years.

Five years ago, it was not wise to make an investment with no
foreseeable profit. But now, the economy is growing at nearly 10%,
should we make it 10.2% with some few more bugs on investment ?

You should also notice that I favor this project as a little extra 
effort and not a all-out, drop-every-thing-else thing. So to minimize
the impact on the economy, maybe it is better doing it ...really slow !! 

> investigation and analysis should be done right now. And,
> based on results of the investigation, we can decide what is
> the right time we should start the construction job. If the young
> soldiers are free,  there will be a lot of jobs for them to do, 
> including upgrading and expanding the existing 1A highway, 
> and many other roads. I must frankly say that the 1A highway 
> is now terribly damaged at many points.

I did not say that 1A road is good. But the volume of traffic for the
next couple of years may not yet be too heavy though in 20 years the 
story may be completely different.  Inmediately we need a better road 
but not a very wide one and for that, the money is already roled out. 
By the way, upgrading a road needs more qualified workforces than the 
young soldiers.
 

> Regarding the national securirty, if we are dirt poor, we can not
> defense our country with or without XLTS. Once we are rich, we
> will be powerful.

How about the stability ? It could become a security problem right ?
I don't think that anybody could favor this project if because of it
we will be poor. When I mention security, I referred to the
problem of planning, i.e. the network-like or the fish-bone-like
system of national roads.   

As a general note, I do not agree with you about making money as quick
as possible. This is exactly what the foreign investors have in mind
when they come to Vietnam. I think that they will be very glad to hear
your view. Unlike them, we have to live in our country for life and
we have the responsibility to the future. If the circumstance permits,
we should not think like them although the temptation for fast money 
and big gold rush is difficult to resist sometime. For this a cool head
as Mr. Tuan Pham suggested would be more than help.

> Regards,

> Vu Thanh Ca.


> Ve^` vo^'n lie^'ng, thu+.c chi se~ cao ho+n du+. toa'n nhie^`u. Cha('c ba'c
> bie^'t gia' tha`nh ddu+o+`ng da^y 500KV. Kho^'i ngu+o+`i gia`u le^n dda^'y,
> co`n gia' thi` cao ho+n du+. toa'n qua' nhie^`u.

About the 500kV line, I think that it is difficult to image how the development
of economy in the South without it. However, when it started, a lot of people
spoke against it. Now they are talking about the 2nd 500kV line, and I have not
heard any objection so far.

> Ca.

Nguyen N.