[news] Burma, Cambodia and Laos to be admitted into ASEAN next month

[Dam Son <son@fermi.phys.washington.edu>]

>From Financial Times:
By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur and Ted Bardacke in Bangkok
  _________________________________________________________________

Burma, Cambodia and Laos will be admitted into Asia's most powerful
regional group next month. The Association of South-east Asian Nations
(Asean) agreed on the historic step at a weekend summit which was
initially divided on the issue because of accusations of human rights
violations in Burma.
The Philippines and Thailand expressed reservations at the summit in
Kuala Lumpur but gave way to Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam,
which supported entry. The US, which helped found Asean during the
height of the Vietnam war and which has led international condemnation
of Burma's human rights record, opposed its entry into Asean.
The decision brings 466m people under Asean's umbrella and marks the
realisation of its founding aim - to extend membership to all 10 of
the region's countries.
It comprises many of the world's fastest growing "tiger" economies,
straddles the sea lanes from Europe to Japan and China, and according
to some, provides a counterweight to China's growing influence in the
region.
The three new members will be given 10 years from January 1998 to
comply with the tariff reduction schedule of the Asean Free Trade Area
(Afta). Other members have until 2003 to reduce tariffs on 98 per cent
of traded items to below 5 per cent, apart from Vietnam, which has
until 2006. Intra-Asean trade has been growing apace, climbing to more
than $70bn in 1996 from $27bn in 1990.
A process of economic liberalisation in Burma, Cambodia and Laos is
likely to increase their attraction to direct investors.
Another benefit of membership for Burma is that countries and
companies in the region may no longer fear being singled out for
criticism by the west, as the US recently did by imposing sanctions on
Burma. "There will be safety in numbers," says Mr J.N. Mak of the
Centre for Maritime Security and Diplomacy in Kuala Lumpur.
However, the planned tariff reduction programme could present
difficulties. Cambodia's government derives 72 per cent of its tax
revenue from customs and will be hard pressed to meet Afta guidelines
without upsetting the national budget. The establishment of what is
now clearly a "two-track" Asean could also provide excuses for some
core members of the group to seek exemptions from Afta deadlines,
especially in the area of agriculture and vehicles.
Meanwhile, internal Asean politics and its relationship with the rest
of the world could now become more convoluted. Divisions over Burma's
entry were evident, with the more democratic countries of Thailand and
Philippines showing the most reluctance, while Singapore, which
attaches great value to the US security presence in Asia, was more
neutral.
Mr Ali Alatas, Indonesia's foreign minister, signalled that the need
to balance China's growing economic and military power was a factor in
the speedy admission of Burma, which is supplied militarily from
Beijing. "By having all three together, we are now complete."
Politically, Burma is likely to receive much more from Asean than it
offers to the group. Asean's decision may be interpreted by the
Burmese junta as a stamp of approval for its past actions and as
armour against future criticism.
It is possible the west's opposition to Burma's entry could give Asean
an anti-west edge, diplomats said. A conflict is already shaping up
over whether Burma will be allowed to attend the Asia-Europe summit in
London next year.
For the time being, Asean has not assigned the new members "dialogue
partners" with non-member countries - such as the US, EU, Australia,
Canada and others - thus limiting their access to big powers via
Asean. But the Pan-Asian rhetoric may be dense at a December summit of
Asean leaders in Malaysia, to which China, Japan and Korea have for
the first time been invited. It is possible that such a summit could
move Asean closer to Asia's big powers, while distancing it from the
west.