Re: Structural unemployment

[ianb@sun670.telecom.tandem.com (zen machine)]

Ba'c Sonnet wrote:

> Remind that about 80% of Vietnamese are living in the country, and
> the percentage of the unemployment in the country (among VN-se farmers)
> is really unknown.  

Point taken.

> Each real VN-se, who want and hope that VN will 
> become a real tiger someday (after 30-50 years), has to know 
> that in the developed countries only few percents of populations 
> is "farmers".  

Why is this fact so?

> [The percent of famers also say us about the degree of the 
> civilization of the country.  I meaned here the West Civilization.  
> For example, England about 1.5%, US about 3%, EU less than 10%]

I'm not sure if I understand the connection between being a
"civilized" society and having a low percentage of farmers. 
Please elaborate.

> It means that, if VN want to become rich and civilised country, then VN 
> has to reduce the actual astronomical number 70% (farmers/populations)
> to 10% in the next 40-50 years.  It means that VN has to create about 
> 15-20 mil new jobs for these people.

Here's my .02:

As the country becomes more "industrialized", naturally more
and more of the work that traditionally have been done by hand will
be done by machinery. But that doesn't mean the people won't
have anything else to do. It only means that they'll have to
learn new skills instead (and you can bet that they will learn
them rather than die of starvation). The "reduction" in the number 
of actual farmers will happen gradually and follow a course dictated 
largely by natural forces (i.e. the market) as well as government 
interventions (i.e. training programs, subsidies, loans, etc.)

Education will, once again, play a key role in the transition
from an agricultural society to an industrialized one (note I
did not use the term "civilized"). Children from rural areas will
*especially* need to have a good education in order to effectively
compete in the new era. Some of them will continue to be farmers,
of course. However, farming in the future will be quite different 
from how it's done today. Therefore future farmers will also need 
more than just a plot of land and a willingess to work like a dog 
(e.g. tra^u bo\).

The service sector will no doubt grow bigger in an industrialized
economy, therefore small businesses will be a significant catalyst
for economic growth (as it is in almost all developed economies
around the world). It follows that programs to help people in the
rural areas start their own small businesses should be given 
special attention in the years ahead (e.g. small business loans,
training, etc.)

There are plenty of lessons around for VN to learn from. I think
it's too early to panic :) but of course it's always better to
look ahead and anticipate potential problems than to "wait 'til
the tide hits your feet before you jump" :))

Thank you, ba'c Sonnet, for the opportunity to share my view with
you on this interesting topic.

Regards,
Ian