Re: Hie^.p U*o*'c Ma^.u Di.ch (HUMD) Vie^.t My?

["Hoa Nguyen" <thanhhuy@email.msn.com>]

Cha`o ba'c H. Tha.ch,
Hy vo.ng to^i se~ kho^ng bi. ro+i va`o ca'i the^' "pha?i chu+'ng minh cho
ddu+o+.c la` VN kho^ng bi. e'p, ba(`ng kho^ng thi` chi? co' nghi~a  la` My~
dda~ e'p VN qua' dda'ng  dde^'n mu+'c kho^ng chi.u ddu+o+.c.".
>>> 1/ Vie^.c ky' HDTM vo+'i My~la` vie^.c bi`nh thu+o+`ng va` ne^n la`m
(ngay
>> ca?
>
>Ca'i na`y thi` trong chi'nh phu?, ca? nhu+~ng ngu+o+`i pha?n ddo^'i dde^`u
>ddo^`ng y' vo+'i ba'c Ho`a. Nhu+ng va^'n dde^` la` ddi va`o ca'c ddie^`u
>khoa?n cu. the^?, thi` co' the^? to^i kho^ng bie^'t chi'nh xa'c, chu'ng ta
>tha^'y ca'i gia' qua' lo+'n. Logic tho^ng thu+o+`ng la` ngu+o+`i ta chi?
>la`m ca'i gi` khi benefits outweight costs, nhu+ng ne^'u HDTM ma` cost
>cao ho+n benefits thi` sao? To^i chu+a tha^'y mo^.t pha^n ti'ch na`o chi?
ra
>la` benefits cao ho+n, ma` cho dde^'n nay chi? tha^'y nhu+~ng ca^u chung
>chung la` ca? the^' gio+'i ky' vo+'i My~, My~ la` cu+o+`ng quo^'c KT,
>vv...

Theo to^i, ca'i ne^`n kinh te^' ma` My~ theo dduo^?i ngay tu+` dda^`u la`
kinh te^' thi.tru+o+`ng co' ti'nh ca'ch toa`n ca^`u, va` trong thu+.c te^'
My~ (cu`ng ca'c ddo^`ng minh cu?a My~) co' ddu? lu+.c dde^? ddu+a the^'
gio+'i ddi theo ddu+o+`ng hu+o+'ng ddo'. Ca'i go.i la` "xu the^' ta^'t
ye^'u..." ddu'ng o+? tru+o+`ng ho+.p na`y. Ddi ngu+o+.c la.i la` tu+. la`m
co^ la^.p, suy ye^'u, la.c ha^.u, va` go.i ddu+o+.c la` ..."pha?n ddo^.ng"
(trong li~nh vu+.c kinh te^') theo nghi~a bi`nh thu+o+`ng cu?a tu+` na`y.

>> 2/ Vai tro` cu?a My~ trong ne^`n kinh te^', thu+o+ng ma.i toa`n ca^`u
he^'t
>> su+'c lo+'n, ne^n (co' he^. lua^.n) ne^'u muo^'n tham gia va`o ne^`n kinh
>> te^' ddo', trongti`nhhi`nh hie^.n nay, thi` kho^ng the^? que^n/bo? qua
>> ddu+o+.c My~.
>
>Vie^.c My~ ma.nh kho^ng ai ba`n ca~i nu+~a. Nhu+ng co`n ca'i "he^.
>lua^.n" cu?a ba'c thi` to^i chu+a tha^'y thuye^'t phu.c la*'m. Trong
>lu'c ca^`n/pha?i ky' vo+'i My~ thi` ngu+o+`i ta co' the^? ky' nhie^`u
>loa.i HD. Va^.y ca^u ho?i la` chu'ng ta ne^n co^' ga*'ng pha^'n dda^'u
>cho loa.i HD na`o.
>

HDTM la` hie^.p ddi.nh ca^`n thie^'t va` dda^`y ddu? nha^'t trong mo^'i giao
di.ch thu+o+ng ma.i & kinh te^' giu+~a hai nu+o+'c Vie^.t-My~. Bi`nh
thu+o+`ng ho'a ngoa.i giao chi? la` bu+o+'c dda^`u (va` dda~ la`m xong 5, 6
na(m ro^`i). Ve^` ma(.t to^? chu+'c, ddie^`u ha`nh thi` My~ (va` VN) kho^ng
the^? co' tre^n 100 loa.i thu+o+ng u+o+'c kha'c nhau vo+'i tu+`ng nu+o+'c
rie^ng bie^.t tre^n the^' gio+'i cho phu` ho+.p vo+'i tu+`ng hoa`n ca?nh
kha'c nhau. To^i kho^ng nghi~ tre^n ca(n ba?n  My~ se~ ky' vo+'i VN  nhu+~ng
gi` kha'c vo+'i nhu+~ng ddie^`u  dda~ ky' vo+'i Trung quo^'c, La`o, Mo^ng
Co^?...

> To^i dda.t ca^u ho?i la` lie^.u ba'c na`o co' the^? so sa'nh HD My~ ky'
>vo+'i mo^.t nu+o+'c dang phat trie^?n na`o va` HD My~ offer vo+'i VN dde^?
>chu'ng ta co' the^? so sa'nh va` co' ca'ch dda'nh gia' khoa ho.c thi`
>dde^'n nay chung ta va^~n dda~ co' ba^'t ky` mo^.t msg na`o nhu+ the^'
>dda^u.
>
Ca^u ho?i ddo' kho^ng thie^'t thu+.c vi` kho' ma` tra? lo+`i ddu+o+.c. To^i
cho.n ca'ch ba`n quanh no' tho^i.

>> Ngay ta cu~ng co`n ca^`n dde^'n Nha^.t, Nam Ha`n, DDa` Loa`n,
>> Singgapore..dde^? pha't trie^?n kinh te^'. Theo kinh nghie^.m cu?a ca'c
>> nu+o+'c dda~/ddang tre^n ddu+o+`ng pha't trie^?n kinh te^' thi` My~ la`
thi.
>> tru+o+`ng tie^u thu. ra^'t lo+'n. Ca'c nu+o+'c Nha^.t, Nam Ha`n , Dda`i
>> Loan, Trung quo^'c dde^`u du+.a va`o vie^.c buo^n ba'n co' lo+.i vo+'i
My~
>> ma` "bo^'c le^n".
>>
>Ba'c nghi~ o+? nha` kho^ng hie^?u chuye^.n ABC na`y hay sao. No'i nhu+~ng
>chuye^.n tre? con na`y ro^`i hy vo.ng thuye^'t phu.c ddu+o+.c policy
>makers thi` qua? la`... mo+ mo^.ng tha^.t.
>

To^i kho^ng mo+ mo^.ng cu~ng nhu+ nhie^`u ngu+o+`i kha'c dda~ kho^ng mo+
mo^.ng. Hie^.n nay trong nu+o+'c va^~n chu+a co' nhu+~ng  kinh te^' gia
ddu+o+.c dda`o ta.o dde^? hie^?u bie^'t va^'n dde^` kinh te^' mo+'i o+?
ta^`m quo^'c te^' (va^ng, co' the^? co', nhu+ng chu+a pha?i la` ddu?
nhie^`u). O^ng NXO thi` cu~ng dda~ gia`, kie^'n thu+'c cu~ng ho+i xu+a,  va`
chu+a cha('c ddu+o+.c tro.ng du.ng. Co`n la.i ne^'u co' ai kha'c thi` cu~ng
kho^ng co' ca'i the^' dde^? no'i, hay dde^? ddu+o+.c nghe. Quye^`n lo+.i
ve^` chi'nh tri., va` kinh te^' che la^'p ddi nhu+~ng suy nghi~, ha`nh
ddo^.ng ddu'ng dda('n: bie^'t va^.y nhu+ng la`m thi` tru+o+'c ma('t cha(?ng
co' lo+.i gi` cho Ta...

>> Dda^y la` ddie^`u dda'ng tie^'c ddo'. Nhu+ng ai cho ba'c  copy ca'c
hie^.p
>> ddi.nh ddo'  dde^? ddie^`u nghie^n, ke^? ca? nu+o+'c ba.n tha^n thie^'t
>> nha^'t cu?a ta la` Trung quo^'c.
>
>Ddu'ng la` nhu+~ng no^.i dung ddo' kho^ng co' tre^n net dde^? ba'c va`
>to^i search ca'i la` ra ngay. Nhu+ng to^i kho^ng nghi~ la` kho^ng the^?
>access ddu+o+.c nhu+ b'ac nghi~ dda^u.
>
Va`i to+` ba'o Ta^yphu+o+ng co' pha^n ti'ch va('n ta('t, nhu+ng co' the^?
la` ne^u le^n ddu+o+.c nhu+~ng nguye^n nha^n chi'nh ye^'u ca?n tro+? vie^.c
ky' ke^'t Hie^.p ddi.nh. Trong nu+o+'c cu~ng co' nhie^`u ngu+o+`i ddo.c.
Co`n vie^.c pha^n ti'ch ba?n HD dde^? nha^.n ddi.nh gi` ddo', gia? du. co'
the^? la`m ddu+o+.c, thi` cha('c cu~ng pha?i ma^'t va`i na(m mo+'i nga~ ngu~
chuye^.n pha?i tra'i. Ddo' la` kinh nghie^.m ra^'t tho^ng thu+o+`ng (mo+'i
nha^'t la` vu. dda'nh gia' TMH).

>> My~  e'p the^' na`o ma`
>> TQ ha`ng tha'ng co' ca'c ca'n ca^n thu+o+ng ma.i vo+'i My~ co' lo+.i
dde^'n
>> 7, 8 ty? ddo^ la ?
>
>Ba'c nhi`n quan he^. thu+o+ng ma.i Trung-My~ ho+i ddo+n gia?n dda^'y.
>Ba'c thu+? ddo.c Segal tre^n Foreign Policy ga^`n dda^y thi` cha*'c ba'c
>se~ co' the^m tho^ng tin dda^'y.
>
Ba'c co' the^? to'm ta('t tho^ng tin ddo' ddu+o+.c kho^ng. Nhu+ng sao ba'c
cho.n ca'ch nhi`n ve^` ma(.t ngoa.i giao dde^? dda'nh gia' mo^.t va^'n dde^`
ddang tha?o lua^.n thuo^.c ddi.a ha.t kinh te^'. Tre^n ca(n ba?n thi` TQ co'
lo+.i lo+'n, ne^n dda~ va^.n do^.ng dde^? HDTM tie^'p tu.c co' hie^.u lu+.c
tu+`ng na(m va` luo^n ye^u ca^`u dde^? HD co' hie^.u lu+.c la^u da`i ho+n
nu+~a . Tre^n thu+.c te^', TQ ba'n ha`ng re? tie^`n nhu+ng ddem ve^` ha`ng
tha'ng ha`ng nhie^`u ty? my~ kim, sau khi dda~ mua sa('m nhu+~ng ma'y mo'c,
trang bi. hie^.n dda.i ma` TQ chu+a la`m ra ddu+o+.c. Ro^'t cuo^.c thi` TQ
co' thu+`a ddo^ la la^'y tu+` My~ dde^? mua vu~ khi' cu?a Nga.

>> VN dda~ tu+`ng ye^u ca^`u kho^'i DNA co' chi'nh sa'ch
>> dda(.c bie^.t ve^` thu+o+ng ma.i vo+'i mi`nh (to^i nho+' la` v/d thue^'
>> kho'a), to^i nghi~ VN cu~ng muo^'n co' "che^' ddo^. u+u dda?i" ddo' la^`n
>> na`y vi` ti`nh tra.ng kinh te^' ddo^.c dda'o cu?a mi`nh, nhu+ng cha('c
kho'
>> ddu+o+.c tho?a ma~n.
>
>Ca'i na`y thi` ba'c hoa`n toa`n vo~ ddoa'n ro^`i. Ba'c kho^ng co' tho^ng
>tin ddu'ng kho^ng? Theo to^i bie^'t, thi` VN kho^ng da.i gi` ddo`i ho?i
>ca'i ngu+o+`i kha'c kho^ng co'.

Kho^ng pha?i la` "da.i" ma` la` "kho^n " ddo' tho^i. Nhu+ng ngu+o+`i kha'c
cu~ng kho^ng ke'm  "kho^n" ho+n ta. Tho^ng tin thi` co' nhie^`u, nhu+ng dda~
qua la^u, thuo^.c loa.i cu~, to^i kho^ng co`n giu+~; tuy va^.y khi co' di.p
to^i se~ cung ca^'p ba'c.

Trong quan he^. vo+'i My~ VN la`m gi` co'
>ca'i dde^? na^ng gia', ma*.c ca? dda^u. Ca'i VN ddo`i, chi? la` bi`nh
>thu+o+`ng nhu+ ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c tho^i.
>

VN co' nhie^`u thu+' chu+'. Tru+o+'c he^'t la` vi. tri' cu?a VN o+? vu`ng
kinh te^' ddang pha't trie^?n ra^'t so^i ddo^.ng, va` la.i tie^'p ca^.n
vo+'i 1 thi. tru+o+`ng ra^'t ro^.ng lo+'n (trong tu+o+ng lai) la` Trung
Quo^'c. Thi' du., My~ ma` la^.p ddu+o+.c  nha` may' sa?n xua^'t xe ho+i o+?
mie^`n Ba('c thi` co' the^? cho+? sang TQ vo+'i gia' ba'n re? nha^'t. VN
cu~ng co' ta`i nguye^n ma` My~ ca^`n  hay co' the^? mua ddu+o+.c vo+'i gia'
tha^'p ho+n no+i kha'c, nha^n co^ng la.i re? ma` ho.c nghe^` ra^'t nhanh;
khai tha'c ddu+o+.c thi` la` nguo^`n lo+.i lo+'n la('m.
To^i nho+' co' la^.p lua^.n (cu?a ba'c AV), la` VN cha(?ng co' gi` nhie^`u
dde^? ba'n cho My~ , ne^n HD ne^'u ky' cu~ng cha(?ng lo+.i cho VN bao nhie^u
(kha? na(ng xua^'t kha^?u hie^.n nay  chi? vu+`a ddu? cho thi. tru+o+`ng
cha^u A^u ). Nhu+ng VN co' ta`i nguye^n va` nha^n co^ng, khi HD du+o+.c ky'
mu+'c sa?n xua^'t trong nu+o+'c tu+. nhie^n se~ ta(ng theo lua^.t cung
ca^`u, va`  se~ thu hu't dda^`u tu+ tu+` nhie^`u nu+o+'c  dde^? sa?n xua^'t
ha`ng ba'n qua My~ vo+'i gia' tha^'p ho+n no+i kha'c. Kha? na(ng ki'ch
thi'ch su+. pha't trie^?n kinh te^' trong nu+o+'c to^i cho la` vo^ cu`ng
lo+'n. Chi? ddie^?m so+ va`i ma(.t, to^i kho^ng tu+. tha^'y la` qua' la.c
quan :-).
N. Ho`a