Re: Hie^.p U*o*'c Ma^.u Di.ch (HUMD) Vie^.t My?

[NGUYEN Hong Thach <thach@coombs.anu.edu.au>]

Hi ba'c Ho`a,

On Sun, 31 Oct 1999, Hoa Nguyen wrote:
> kha'c nhau. To^i kho^ng nghi~ tre^n ca(n ba?n  My~ se~ ky' vo+'i VN  nhu+~ng
> gi` kha'c vo+'i nhu+~ng ddie^`u  dda~ ky' vo+'i Trung quo^'c, La`o, Mo^ng
> Co^?...

cuo^'i cu`ng thi` ba'c cu~ng co' ca^u tra? lo+`i cho ca^u ho?i cu?a to^i. 
Nhu+ng tie^'c ra*`ng ddo' chi? la` ddie^`u ba'c NGHI~. Ba'c kho^ng co' 
tho^ng tin cho ddie^`u ba'c tin/nghi~ ddu'ng kho^ng?
 Mo^.t khi chu'ng ta kho^ng co' tho^ng tin thi` ddu+`ng vo^.i ke^'t 
lua^.n hoa*.c tin vo^.i DDo' la` ddie^`u duy nha^'t to^i muo^'n no'i 
trong thread na`y.

To^i sa~n sa`ng tin/ nghe... ne^'u ba'c hay ai ddo' co' THO^NG TIN offer 
cho to^i.

> > To^i dda.t ca^u ho?i la` lie^.u ba'c na`o co' the^? so sa'nh HD My~ ky'
> >vo+'i mo^.t nu+o+'c dang phat trie^?n na`o va` HD My~ offer vo+'i VN dde^?
> >chu'ng ta co' the^? so sa'nh va` co' ca'ch dda'nh gia' khoa ho.c thi`
> >dde^'n nay chung ta va^~n dda~ co' ba^'t ky` mo^.t msg na`o nhu+ the^'
> >dda^u.
> >
> Ca^u ho?i ddo' kho^ng thie^'t thu+.c vi` kho' ma` tra? lo+`i ddu+o+.c. To^i
> cho.n ca'ch ba`n quanh no' tho^i.

Ddo' la` ddie^`u kha'c ca*n ba?n giu+~a ca'ch tie^'p ca^.n cu?a ba'c va` 
cu?a to^i. to^i dda*.t ca^u ho?i dde^? hie6?u ro~ ho+n va^'n dde^` co`n 
b a'c thi` vo^.i ke^'t lua^.n du+a tre^n mo^.t hie^.n tu+o+.ng ma` 
nguye^n nha^n cu?a no' chu+a ddu+o+.c xa'c ddi.nh. HDTM chu+a ky' to^i 
dda.t ca^u ho?i ta.i sao. Co`n ba'c thi` co' ngay ca^u tra? lo+`i ta.i 
chi'nh phu? VN thay ddo^?i la^.p tru+O=`ng. to^i no'i thay ddo^?i la` 
ba^'t dda*'c di~ nhu+ng kho^ng co' nghi~a la` kho^ng the^? mo^.t khi 
NE^'U ky' la` do+? ho+n. Co`n ba'c thi` mo^.t mu+.c kha*?ng ddi.nh ky' 
la` hay. Ba'c base your argument on the belief that My~ cu~ng ky' 
TU+O+NG TU+. vo+'i ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c. to^i ngo+` ca'i ne^`n ta?ng cu?a 
logic cu?a ba'c. I't nha^'t la` to^i chu+a tin, mo^.t khi chu+a co tho^ng 
tin.

> To^i kho^ng mo+ mo^.ng cu~ng nhu+ nhie^`u ngu+o+`i kha'c dda~ kho^ng mo+
> mo^.ng. Hie^.n nay trong nu+o+'c va^~n chu+a co' nhu+~ng  kinh te^' gia
> ddu+o+.c dda`o ta.o dde^? hie^?u bie^'t va^'n dde^` kinh te^' mo+'i o+?
> ta^`m quo^'c te^' (va^ng, co' the^? co', nhu+ng chu+a pha?i la` ddu?
> nhie^`u). O^ng NXO thi` cu~ng dda~ gia`, kie^'n thu+'c cu~ng ho+i xu+a,  va`
> chu+a cha('c ddu+o+.c tro.ng du.ng. Co`n la.i ne^'u co' ai kha'c thi` cu~ng
> kho^ng co' ca'i the^' dde^? no'i, hay dde^? ddu+o+.c nghe.

Logic cu?a b'ac neu to^i hie^?u ddu'ng tu+'c la` hie^.n nay chu'ng ta 
kho^ng co' chuye^n gia kinh te^' ne^n kho^ng hie^?u ddie^`u so+ dda*?ng 
ma` ba'c tri`nh ba^`y trong msg tru+o+'c la` ky' HDTM la` co' lo+.i?

Ddu'ng la` chu'ng ta thie^'u ngu+o+`i gio?i dde^? hie^?u kte^' the^' 
gio'i hie^.n nay. Nhu+ng ddo' kho^ng pha?i la`	 ca'i chu'ng ta ba`n o+? 
dda^y, ca'i chu'ng ta ddang no'i la` ba'c ddu+a ra lo+`i khuye^n ddo+n 
gia?n the^' thi` khuye^n ddu+o+.c ai. Hope you get my point and please 
focus on what ywe are discussing.

> Quye^`n lo+.i
> ve^` chi'nh tri., va` kinh te^' che la^'p ddi nhu+~ng suy nghi~, ha`nh
> ddo^.ng ddu'ng dda('n: bie^'t va^.y nhu+ng la`m thi` tru+o+'c ma('t cha(?ng
> co' lo+.i gi` cho Ta...

Ca'i na`y thi` dde^` nghi. ba'c mo+? mo^.t thread kha'c ne^'u our policy 
allows

> Va`i to+` ba'o Ta^yphu+o+ng co' pha^n ti'ch va('n ta('t, nhu+ng co' the^?
> la` ne^u le^n ddu+o+.c nhu+~ng nguye^n nha^n chi'nh ye^'u ca?n tro+? vie^.c
> ky' ke^'t Hie^.p ddi.nh. Trong nu+o+'c cu~ng co' nhie^`u ngu+o+`i ddo.c.
Co' le~ chu'ng ta nhu+~ng ngu+o+`i ngoa.i dda.o, cu~ng ne^n ba*`ng lo`ng 
vo+'i nhu+~ng pha^n ti'ch chung chung nha^'t ddo' tho^i, nhu+ng to^i 
va^~n chu+a tha^'y ba'c tri'ch da^~n nhu+~ng pha^n ti'ch kinh te^' na`o, 
ngoa.i tru+` nhu+~ng lo+`i ba`n ve^` lo+.i i'ch  chi'nh tri. vv... na*`m 
ngoa`i khuo^ng kho^? policy cu?a forum.

> >Ba'c thu+? ddo.c Segal tre^n Foreign Policy ga^`n dda^y thi` cha*'c ba'c
> >se~ co' the^m tho^ng tin dda^'y.
> >
> Ba'c co' the^? to'm ta('t tho^ng tin ddo' ddu+o+.c kho^ng. Nhu+ng sao ba'c
> cho.n ca'ch nhi`n ve^` ma(.t ngoa.i giao dde^? dda'nh gia' mo^.t va^'n dde^`
> ddang tha?o lua^.n thuo^.c ddi.a ha.t kinh te^'. 

Xin thu+a b'ac la` ddo' la` ddi.a ha.t kinh te^', ma*.c du` ddu+o+.c 
ddang tre^n to+` ngoa.i giao ba'c a. to'm ta*'t la.i thi` quan ddie^?m 
Segal la` nhi`n kinh te^' TQ kho^ng nhu+ ca'ch tho^ng thu+o+`ng, be^` 
no^?i nhi`n. Ngay ca? surplus ma` ba'c mentioned, nhi`n ky~ ho+n thi` 
ddo' co' pha?i hoa`n toa`n belong to cHINA kho^ng? hay la` foreign 
investors? etc...

Tre^n ca(n ba?n thi` TQ co'
> lo+.i lo+'n, ne^n dda~ va^.n do^.ng dde^? HDTM tie^'p tu.c co' hie^.u lu+.c
> tu+`ng na(m va` luo^n ye^u ca^`u dde^? HD co' hie^.u lu+.c la^u da`i ho+n
> nu+~a . 
to^i kho^ng pha?n ddo^'i la` TQ co' lo+.i/. Kho^ng thi` Tq cha*?ng ky' 
ro^`i. Nhu+ng to^i pha?n ddo^"i ca'ch nhi`n mo^.t chie^`u. My~ co' da.i 
dde^/ ky' va` hu+o+?ng tha^m hu.t vo+'i Tq kho^ng?

the^m nu+~a ddie^`u to^i kho^ng co' ddu? tho^ng tin, hoa.c chu+a/kho^ng 
no'i ra ddo' la` ddie^`u kie^.n cu?a HDTM MY~ ky' vo+'i Tq kha'c vo+'i 
VN.

To^i vi' du. tho^i nhe', Hoa`n toa`n kho^ng co' nghi~a la` chi'nh xa'c, 
ne^'u co' ba^'t ddo^`ng, phi'a My~ dde^` ngi. dde^'n to`a a'n New York 
dde^? gia?i quye^'t kie^.n tu.ng, co`n vo+'i ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c My~ 
ddo^`ng y' gia?i quye^'t to^' tu.ng o+? to`a a'n thu+' ba na`o cha?ng 
ha.n. Ne^'u ddo' la` no^.i dung cu?a HD chu'ng ta tu+. ho?i no' co' co^ng 
ba*`ng va` VN co' ne^n dda`m pha'n co' mo^.t HD co^ng ba*`ng ho+n kho^ng.

Tre^n thu+.c te^', TQ ba'n ha`ng re? tie^`n nhu+ng ddem ve^` ha`ng
> tha'ng ha`ng nhie^`u ty? my~ kim, sau khi dda~ mua sa('m nhu+~ng ma'y mo'c,
> trang bi. hie^.n dda.i ma` TQ chu+a la`m ra ddu+o+.c. Ro^'t cuo^.c thi` TQ
> co' thu+`a ddo^ la la^'y tu+` My~ dde^? mua vu~ khi' cu?a Nga.
> 
to^i no'i ro^`i chu'ng ta kho^ng ba`n nhu+~ng chuye^.n ABC na`y.

> Kho^ng pha?i la` "da.i" ma` la` "kho^n " ddo' tho^i. Nhu+ng ngu+o+`i kha'c
> cu~ng kho^ng ke'm  "kho^n" ho+n ta. Tho^ng tin thi` co' nhie^`u, nhu+ng dda~
> qua la^u, thuo^.c loa.i cu~, to^i kho^ng co`n giu+~; tuy va^.y khi co' di.p
> to^i se~ cung ca^'p ba'c.

Thanks in advance. I'll discuss when get your information

> VN co' nhie^`u thu+' chu+'. Tru+o+'c he^'t la` vi. tri' cu?a VN o+? vu`ng
> kinh te^' ddang pha't trie^?n ra^'t so^i ddo^.ng, va` la.i tie^'p ca^.n
> vo+'i 1 thi. tru+o+`ng ra^'t ro^.ng lo+'n (trong tu+o+ng lai) la` Trung
> Quo^'c. Thi' du., My~ ma` la^.p ddu+o+.c  nha` may' sa?n xua^'t xe ho+i o+?
> mie^`n Ba('c thi` co' the^? cho+? sang TQ vo+'i gia' ba'n re? nha^'t. VN
> cu~ng co' ta`i nguye^n ma` My~ ca^`n  hay co' the^? mua ddu+o+.c vo+'i gia'
> tha^'p ho+n no+i kha'c, nha^n co^ng la.i re? ma` ho.c nghe^` ra^'t nhanh;
> khai tha'c ddu+o+.c thi` la` nguo^`n lo+.i lo+'n la('m.

To^i ddoa'n chuye^n mo^n cu?a ba'c kho^ng pha?i la` kinh te^' (me too)/. 
Ba'c luo^n no'i nhu+~ng chuye^.n ABC ve^` kinh te^'. Khi to^i no'i VN
kho^ng co' the^' dde^? dda`m pha'n vo+'i My~ to^i imply more complicated
things. Ba'c tu+o+?ng chi? co' mi`nh VN co' lo+.i the^' so sa'nh ddo' hay
sao.  Ve^` mo.i ma*.t (nhu+~ng ddie^`u ba'c ne^u) TQ dde^`u co' lo+.i
the^' ho+n so vo+'i VN ddo'. 

Anyway, that is not focus of our discussion. Suppose that we have some 
advatages in negotiating witht the americans, that is only good for us.

cheers,
thac.h