Re: China & Vietnam

[huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk]

Dear friends,

Apart from building on Mischief Reef, all Chinese aggression
in SEA has targeted Vietnam. This is not only because Deng hated
Vietnam and made Vietnam a scapegoat for Chinese politics. It's
also because Vietnam doesn't have the means to defend her seas,
because agression against Vietnam won't adversely affect Chinese
and regional economies, and because Vietnam is only on the edge
of acceptability to the world.

In the short term, China is relying on not only its naval superirority
but also on dividing the nations it is up against: China insists that
territorial talks be bilateral and not multilateral, ie, China against
Vietnam, China against Malaysia, China against the Phillippines, China
against Indonesia. The only reason for this is the old divide and conquer
strategy; the nature of the disputes means that bilateral talks are invalid
and the talks must be multilateral. And the ASEAN countries should support each 
other. Vietnam should start campaigning for multilateral talks.    

For long term defence, Vietnam must progess quickly and show the world
that it has a civil society that is worthy of the world's respect, support and
friendship, Vietnam must develop its economy and be a part of the regional
economic well-being, Vietnam must become rich so it can affort to modernise
its defence.

Vietnam's position will be much better not only if it is richer and
has a modern defence but also if the world sees China as a dictatorship 
violating human rights and engaging in unacceptable economic practices that is 
committing aggression against an emergent civil society that is co-operating
in the economic well-being of the world.

Huy