Re: China & Vietnam

[Hong Lam Vu <vuh000@goofy.zdv.Uni-Mainz.de>]

Hi ba'c Toa`n, Huy, and all,

Ca'i vu. Kan Tan ni la` ng` Ta`u ba('n 1 mu~i te^n nha('m 2 mu.c ddi'ch:

1- Phe tuo+'ng ta' TQ "giuo+ng ddo^ng ki'ch ta^y", dda'nh VN nhu+ng la`
dde^? cu?ng co^' the^' co+` cu?a ho. trong dda^'u tranh no^.i bo^. Chinese
elite tho+`i "sau-Dda(.ng".

2- Thu+? na('n ga^n VN sau khi va`o dda^`u na(m nay, VN ta(ng cuo+`ng
no'i chuye^.n ho+.p ta'c qua^n su+. vo+'i Nha^.t, Pha'p, My~, Nga, etc.

Vu. na`y cu~ng gio^'ng nhu+ vu. ta`u Maddox ho^`i 1964 cu?a My~ xa^m pha.m
vu`ng bie^?n VNDCCH. Lie^.u co' da^~n to+'i 1 su+. kie^.n vi.nh Ba('c bo^.
thu+' 2 k0, this is the question now.

Va^~n bie^'t chie^'n luo+.c cu?a TQ la` chie^"m ca? vu`ng bie^?n Ddo^ng
(South China Sea) la`m cu?a rie^ng, nhu+ng ta.i sao ho. la.i cho.n VN
la`m "ddo^.t pha' kha^?u" ?

1- VN la` "ma('t xi'ch ye^'u nha^'t" ve^` ma(.t ngoai giao va` quan he^.
quo^'c te^' trong 5 nuo+'c ddo^'i thu? vo+'i Ba('c kinh tranh cha^'p vu`ng
bie^?n Ddo^ng (VN, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei). VN k0 co' 1
hie^.p uo+'c an ninh chung vo+'i 1 cuo+`ng quo^'c na`o, trong khi Phi co'
hie^.p uo+'c vo+'i My~; Malay va` Brunei trong kho^'i Commonwelth, co'
hie^.p uo+'c vo+'i Anh. Tai wan thi` vu. eo bie^?n na(m ngoa'i, TQ vu+`a
ba('n ma^'y qu?a te^n lu+?a dda~ tha^'y ta`u chie^'n My~ u`n u`n ke'o
dde^'n.

2- VN tranh cha^'p nhie^`u nha^'t vo+'i TQ, ca? qdd Hoa`ng sa, toa`n bo^.
qd Truo+`ng sa. Hie^.n VN la` nuo+'c cho^'t nhie^`u vi. tri' nha^'t trong
qd TS (33 vi. tri' tre^n 21 dda?o chi`m no^?i), trong khi TQ chie^'m ho+n
10 dda?o, Phi. 8 da?o, Malay. 3 dda?o, Taiwan 1 dda?o (va` la` dda?o lo+'n
nha^'t). 

Va^.y die^.t VN vu+`a de^~ ho+n ca? ma` ne^'u die^.t dduo+.c VN thi`
co' the^? ngo^`i xo^?m le^n ma(.t dda'm co`n la.i.

Dde^? ddo^'i pho' vo+'i chie^'n di.ch "ba('n ti?a" ni cu?a TQ, ca'i
phuo+ng tri`nh civil society vs dictatorship cu?a ba'c Huy cha(?ng gia?i
quye^'t dduo+.c gi` dda^u. The^' gio+'i ba^y gio+` k0 co`n pha^n chia theo
ideology nu+~a ma` thua^`n tu'y la` balance of power tho^i.

VN co' ma^'y "ddo^`ng minh tu+. nhie^n" trong vu. ddo^'i dda^`u TQ, la`
Japan, US, ASEAN. Ca'c ba'c na`y dde^`u ca^`n hoa` bi`nh dde^? co`n la`m
a(n kinh te^', va` dda(.c bie^.t ba'c Nha^.t k0 muo^'n tro^ng tha^'y TQ
kie^?m soa't ca? vu`ng bie^?n Ddo^ng, khi a^'y ba'c TQ se~ "cha(ng da^y
ba'n ve'", ta`u da^`u cu?a ba'c Nha^.t tu+` Trung Ddo^ng ve^` dde^`u pha?i
mua ve', va` ba'c Nha^.t tu+` ddo', muo^'n qua so^ng South China Sea pha?i
lu.y ddo` Beijing. Nhu+ng ngo^`i tre^n ddo^'ng va`ng (co' ma^'y ddo^`ng
minh tu+. nhie^n) k0 co' nghi~a la` dda~ no co+m a^'m ca^.t, co`n pha?i
bie^'t ddem va`ng ra cho+. ma` mua co+m ngon vo+'i a'o a^'m nu+~a.

Cheers,
Lam H Vu.