[Press] CSMonitor: Vietnam Needs America to Ward Off China

[Dam Son <son@fermi.phys.washington.edu>]

Christian Science Monitor, Thursday April 17, 1997
(http://www.csmonitor.com)

Opinion/Essays

Now Vietnam Needs America to Ward Off China

William J. Dobson

Among the countries of Asia, few relationships have been as stormy as that
between Communist neighbors China and Vietnam. 

In 1979, China launched a border war against Vietnam designed, in the
words of Deng Xiaoping, "to teach Vietnam a lesson." In 1988, China and
Vietnam fought a naval battle over the Spratly Islands, and China has
violated Vietnam's territorial waters nine times since 1991. 

On March 7 China raised the stakes by moving an oil rig, the Kan Tan III,
64 nautical miles off Vietnam's shore. Vietnam initially reacted by
quietly passing a note to China's ambassador in Hanoi, expressing its
concern with the violation. 

But the Vietnamese went public on March 20, presenting their case (and the
aerial photographs to prove it) to fellow members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). While these countries view Vietnam's
situation sympathetically because of their own maritime claims, only one
of the seven members - the Philippines - publicly supported Vietnam. 

China's strategic backyard

On April 1, China withdrew the oil rig. But an official with the China
National Offshore Oil Corporation said it was removed only because it
failed to find oil. Subsequent diplomatic discussions have remained
deadlocked. 

There are both economic and political reasons for China's provocative
actions. First, China became a net importer of oil in 1994. With
insufficient energy reserves at home, China has incentives to expand its
territorial reach in the South China Sea. Second, given that some of
China's claims to the South China Sea date back to the Qing dynasty, any
perceived compromise of the country's sovereignty could be destabilizing
for Jiang Zemin's efforts to cement his position as Deng's successor. 

Strategically, Beijing's actions are well devised. As in the past, China
shows a penchant for acting unilaterally and then professing an interest
in negotiations. In this recent dispute China has stated that it would now
accept joint development of Vietnam's offshore oil deposits. Naturally,
Vietnam finds this unacceptable. 

However, by choosing to encroach only on Vietnam, China has ensured that
the dispute remains bilateral, not harming its overall ties to ASEAN
nations. While ASEAN members are obviously concerned that China could
employ a similar strategy against their claims in the South China Sea,
their reluctance to condemn China's actions appears to have validated
Beijing's approach. 

China's recent moves against Vietnam are a perfect test for gauging both
ASEAN cohesion and the wider interest of the international community. 

Diplomatically, Vietnam has limited means for deterring China's advance on
its territorial claims. ASEAN will remain the best forum for Vietnam to
organize support for its position. It must continue to work with the
members of ASEAN to monitor China's movements in the South China Sea. But
ASEAN support will go only so far. Before Vietnam joined ASEAN in 1995,
the body informed Hanoi that it would not confront China on its behalf. 

Rather, Vietnam's improving relationship with the United States is the
greatest deterrent to Chinese territorial violations, and it also
buttresses US interests in the region. China wants Vietnam - its
"strategic backyard" - and the rest of Indochina (Cambodia and Laos) to
remain free of any outside military influence. If the Chinese believed in
the credibility of US-Vietnamese military cooperation, they would be
forced to be more careful about violating Vietnamese sovereignty or any
other policies that might bring the US and Vietnam closer. 

>From an American perspective, a military relationship with Vietnam offers
a number of benefits. Since nearly a quarter of the world's ocean freight
passes through the South China Sea, the US has an economic interest in
promoting the region's stability. Furthermore, with military budgets
expanding faster in this region than anywhere else, an enhanced US
presence would help to discourage an Asian arms race as well as quiet
fears that the US commitment to Asia is eroding. 

US-Vietnam military ties? 

Earlier this month, Adm. Joseph Prueher, commander-in-chief of the US
Pacific Command, became the highest-ranking US military official to visit
Hanoi since the Vietnam War. Admiral Prueher said he and his Vietnamese
counterparts had discussed a "nascent military relationship." 

During Vice President Gore's recent tour of the region, he denied any
intention of reducing the US presence in Asia. But present levels may
prove insufficient for a volatile region. The Clinton administration
should not be hemmed into a mere maintenance of the status quo. As China's
recent wanderlust demonstrates, the Asia-Pacific balance of power remains
fluid. The US must remain willing to react in the interests of Asian
stability. Vietnam is the place to start. 

* William J. Dobson is associate editor of Foreign Affairs.