Re: When VN becomes a real Tiger?

[Tuan Pham <tuan.pham@unsw.edu.au>]

Nhat Quang Ton <nqt@minyos.its.rmit.EDU.AU> wrote

>I also have read that if the population grow at 1% ,in order to maitain
>the standard of living GDP should develope at the rate of at least 4 % .
>Also , I wonder that how can Vietnamese GDP per person double that number
>in the year 2000 reaching $450 , because yesterday I read in Asiaweek GDP
>per person in Viet nam stand at $250 . Hopefully , that is the wrong data. 

Hi Nhat

Recently I made some guestimates of future gdp per capita
for VN and neighbouring countries. I assumed that present
growth rates will continue for 10 years then all countries
settle down to 6% p.a. I also assumed that as people gets 
richer the population growth rate slows down (but at 
different rates for different countries).

Here are the results for the next 20 years:

Year		1995	2000	2005	2010	2015

China		582	883	1346	1737	2253
India		428	505	597	731	896
Indonesia	599	740	916	1145	1436
Korea		5523	8215	10748	14236	19083
Malaysia	2651	3204	3893	4718	5758
Philippines	616	607	598	726	884
Thailand	1696	2351	3284	4174	5349
Vietnam		251	336	451	548	667

OK, I don't claim even 30% accuracy but the trends are
pretty clear. In 20 years VN is still in the bottom
league (less than US$1000 per capita) together with,
but behind, the Philippines and India. It looks like
these 2 countries are starting to rev up their
economy so we might lag even further behind.

But compare VN and China! In 20 years they will be
about three times better off than us - and we all know
what that mean, don't we...

Cheers
Tuan Pham