Re: When VN becomes a real Tiger?

[Nhat Quang Ton <nqt@minyos.its.rmit.edu.au>]

Hi bac Tuan va cac bac khac , cac tinh toan cua bac qua that rat
impreesive va time-consuming , theo do thi den nam 2000 ta cung chi khiem
ton dat den con so 336 do , dieu toi ban khoan la tai sao van kien cua dai
hoi 8 cua dang van xac dinh phan dau dat 450 tuc la gap doi con so nam
1990 va con du doan rang co nhieu kha nang ta vuot qua con so do . 
Mot dieu cung rat kho hieu la de duy tri toc do phat trien cao mot cach on
dinh trong nhieu nam toi doi hoi tich luy noi bo tu nen kinh te len den
40% ma nuoc ta theo thong ke nam ngoai cung chi khiem ton dat 17 % . Trong
nhung nam qua ta co toc do phat trien cao vi xuat phat diem rat thap ,
nhung trong nhung nam toi lieu tinh hinh co nhu vay khong ? Co bac nao hoc
sau ve kinh te tham gia thao luan lam sang to hon voi . Toi cung chang
hieu can cu vao dau de dat ke hoahc 450 do va lieu co dat duoc khong . 
Cam on cac bac 
Ton Nhat Quang  

> Here are the results for the next 20 years:

> Year		1995	2000	2005	2010	2015

> China		582	883	1346	1737	2253
> India		428	505	597	731	896
> Indonesia	599	740	916	1145	1436
> Korea		5523	8215	10748	14236	19083
> Malaysia	2651	3204	3893	4718	5758
> Philippines	616	607	598	726	884
> Thailand	1696	2351	3284	4174	5349
> Vietnam		251	336	451	548	667

> OK, I don't claim even 30% accuracy but the trends are
> pretty clear. In 20 years VN is still in the bottom
> league (less than US$1000 per capita) together with,
> but behind, the Philippines and India. It looks like
> these 2 countries are starting to rev up their
> economy so we might lag even further behind.

> But compare VN and China! In 20 years they will be
> about three times better off than us - and we all know
> what that mean, don't we...

> Cheers
> Tuan Pham