Re: Statistics

[Dung Trong Nguyen <nguyen@jaist.ac.jp>]

huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk wrote:

> >To see a paradox as tha^`y Tha('ng has promised, we change the
> >condition a little.  The names of two lucky guys then are written down
> >in two folded pieces of paper.  As it happened A picked up one of
> >them, and saw B's name inside.  So now what is A's chance?
> 
> If one of the releaseds is B then the possible combinations
> of the releaseds are AB and BC. As such, there is a 0.5 prob

Your reasoning would look fine if it doesn't lead to the same
probability of 0.5 on the original problem.  That why the formula of
conditional probability have been used, namely to avoid the "paradox".

d~