Re:Statistics

[Dang Hung Thang <thang@mathematik.uni-Bremen.de>]

   > You are right. Can you explain why ?
Dung Trong Nguyen wrote

   The probability must still be 2/3 as A's question seems to unveil no
   information about the case of himself. We carry out a formally
   calculation. The released couple can be either AB, BC or CA, so P(AB)
   = 1/3.  The answer of A's question can be either B or C, so P(answer =
   B) = 1/2.  We have

	   P(A/answer = B) = P(AB) / P(answer = B) = 1/3 / 1/2 = 2/3

   The calculation gives us exactly the number as our intuitive guess
   does.  Therefore there no pradox here at all.

Dear Dung
Paradox la` theo quan ddie^?m cu?a  tu` nha^n A chu+'kho^ng pha?i la` cho
chu'ng ta. Anh ta tu+o+?ng ra(`ng khi co' two possible
cases thi` mo^~i case du+o+.c ga'n mo^.t XS nhu+ nhau (
equiprobability). Tu+o+ng tu+. nhu+ khi gieo mo^.t do^`ng xu
XS ra ma(.t sa^'p la` 1/2 chi? khi ddo^`ng xu ddu+o+.c CHE^' TA.O CA^N
DDO^'I. O+? dda^y ti'nh toa'n cu?a nha` tho^ng tha'i Du~ng cho tha^'y
ngu+o+`i dda'ng lo la` C( XS cu?a C la` 1/3) chu+' kho^ng pha?i la`
A.  Kho^? tha^n cho ke? tha^'t ho.c Statistics!
Cheers
Tha('ng.